Polymarket US has submitted a self-certification to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for offering “combination outcome contracts.”
According to the documents, these bets combine two or more underlying contracts. Essentially, they are akin to sports parlay bets—winnings are paid only if all selected outcomes occur.
The Polymarket application also specifies:
- contracts are subject to a 100% margin on the risk amount;
- restrictions are imposed on players, coaches, and sports organization employees;
- the ban extends to former participants of sports leagues and teams.
Since the contracts are self-certified, Polymarket is not so much seeking explicit permission to offer them as it is notifying the CFTC of its intent. The document states that the listing will occur “no earlier than May 21, 2026.”
Self-certification is currently a major point of contention surrounding prediction markets.
Critics argue that this mechanism allows platforms to quickly introduce products that essentially resemble sports betting, bypassing traditional state-level regulation and licensing.
Polymarket US has also filed a second application with the Commission, but requested confidentiality.
Regulators on Alert
Debates over prediction platforms are extending beyond the CFTC. On May 20, US Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Paul Atkins announced the start of a comment period regarding “novel ETFs,” including funds based on event contracts.
He noted that some issuers have already agreed to temporarily delay the launch of such products while the regulator assesses risks.
On the same day, the Senate Subcommittee on Commerce and Consumer Protection held hearings on prediction markets. Representatives from both parties criticized the rapid spread of sports contracts.
The main argument was that such products increasingly resemble traditional bets but operate through a federal financial framework instead of state-level gambling regulation.
Subcommittee Chair Marsha Blackburn stated that lawmakers are concerned about platforms like Polymarket becoming “shadow sports bookmakers.”
Chairman Ted Cruz specifically noted that there is “serious disagreement” over whether the CFTC should permit sports contracts.
Prediction markets have long troubled lawmakers. Insider trading is a primary topic of discussion. However, only one charge has been filed in the US in this area: active-duty military member Gannon Ken Van Dyke was suspected of using confidential information for blockchain betting.
Researchers more frequently report such cases. In May, Bubblemaps analysts identified the “largest military insider” on Polymarket, who earned about $2.4 million.
Earlier, CFTC Chairman Michael Selig revealed that the agency uses artificial intelligence to monitor insider trading.