Polymarket Skeptical of US Gold Reserve Audit by DOGE

The prediction platform Polymarket has opened bets on the potential audit of the US gold reserve by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), led by Elon Musk.

On February 16, Senator Rand Paul called on the billionaire to conduct an inspection of the Fort Knox bullion vault—the first since 1974. Musk supported the idea.

This gold is the property of the American people. I sure hope it’s still there!

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 17, 2025

“This gold is the property of the American people. I sure hope it’s still there!” wrote the head of DOGE.

As a result, Polymarket has launched two markets: one for bets on whether the audit will occur by May 2025, and another for predictions on its outcomes.

Users have expressed skepticism about the likelihood of an independent audit. At the time of writing, the probability of it occurring by the end of April is estimated at 40%.

Traders give a mere 21% chance that the 4600 tons of bullion claimed by the Treasury will not be found in Fort Knox.

Amid doubts about the integrity of the US gold reserve, Senator Cynthia Lummis reiterated the need for a strategic bitcoin reserve. She emphasized that its status could be verified by anyone using a simple computer.

Bitcoin fixes this.

A bitcoin reserve could be audited any time 24/7 with a basic computer.

It’s time to upgrade our reserves. https://t.co/ViA9FuJTg4

— Senator Cynthia Lummis (@SenLummis) February 16, 2025

Agne Linge, head of development at WeFi, suggested in a comment to The Block that blockchain could be used to ensure transparency of the gold reserve’s status. She referred to Musk’s expressed support for using the technology for financial oversight.

Analysts at Bitfinex doubted that President Donald Trump would agree to a public audit of the reserves, despite circulating conspiracy theories about their actual size.

“However, if evidence were obtained, it would have a significant impact on the dollar and negatively affect the economy as a whole,” they acknowledged.

Linge added that a potential shortfall would temporarily influence gold prices.

On February 18, the price of the precious metal reached a historic high above $2900 per ounce.

Goldman Sachs raised the annual target for the asset to $3100. Analysts cited strong demand from central banks, according to Reuters. Increasing political uncertainty, including concerns about Trump’s tariffs, could push the price to $3300, experts suggested.

As noted by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, bitcoin is a competitor not to the dollar, but to gold.