The price of Bitcoin will reach $100,000 next summer, on August 16, 2021. This is according to the popular Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, applied to the gold market.
Exactly one year from now (16 Aug 2021) the Bitcoin stock-to-flow price model predicts 100K for the first time pic.twitter.com/CkaYeW2yWJ
— ₿it Harington (@bitharington) August 16, 2020
The chart was published by an analyst under the pseudonym Bit Harrington. He said the figure seemed too high for such a timeframe, but noted that Bitcoin has historically moved against bearish sentiment.
Analyst and entrepreneur Mark van der Chijs retweeted the post and explained why the forecast did not seem impossible.
Most people think this is impossible, but I have seen a 1000% increase in less than a year at least twice before in BTC (2013 & 2017). S2F is holding up pretty well after the halving, if FOMO will start again anything is possible. https://t.co/rOf63ud0zK
— Marc van der Chijs — new account (@marcvanderchijs) August 16, 2020
“Most people think this is impossible, but I have seen a 1000% increase in less than a year at least twice in BTC’s history (in 2013 and 2017). S2F is holding up pretty well after the halving. If FOMO returns, anything is possible,” he wrote.
On the same day, analyst Plan B, who first applied the S2F to Bitcoin, presented a chart confirming the alignment of the latest price moves with the model. According to his forecast, Bitcoin could close the month at around $14,000 for the first time since 2017.
The S2F model is based on the ratio of the asset’s market supply to its annual growth. Its core premise is that the scarcer an asset, the more valuable it is.
Plan B proposed moving away from valuing BTC in US dollars and switching to gold. At the moment one Bitcoin is worth six ounces of gold, and its price continues to rise.
Taking USD out of the equation: 1 BTC = 6 ounces of gold .. and rising pic.twitter.com/doslDJ9l4R
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) August 17, 2020
Earlier, analysts at Weiss Crypto Ratings, based on S2F, predicted a rally to $70 000 by the middle of next year. Plan B had claimed that the model would push Bitcoin price to $100,000 by its end.
Why Strix Leviathan’s analysts consider S2F for Bitcoin fundamentally flawed, read ForkLog:
Astrology and Marketing: Analysts Criticised the Stock-to-Flow Model for Bitcoin
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