Prediction markets declare Trump the loser after the first US presidential debate

Following the first televised debates among the candidates for the U.S. presidency, blockchain prediction markets awarded victory to Democratic Party candidate Joe Biden.

New open interest during tonight’s debate: 👀

Polymarket: $55k
Augur: $10k
Omen: $0 https://t.co/zGVXxODIed pic.twitter.com/EpK2JNqb4F

— Richard Chen (@richardchen39) September 30, 2020

Open interest on the Polymarket platform during the debates held earlier this week rose by $55,000, surpassing $300,000. The corresponding figure for election-outcome futures on the crypto-derivatives exchange FTX stood at $4 million.

FTX: $4mhttps://t.co/FzWX2goXbo

— SBF (@SBF_Alameda) September 30, 2020

In both cases, users were unanimous: on Polymarket Trump’s chances of victory rose in the first minutes, before dropping to 45%. On the FTX exchange, where bets can be leveraged, that figure fell from 44% to 40%.

The probability of Joe Biden’s victory in the U.S. presidential election rose to 55% and 60%, respectively.

Trump victory futures on the U.S. presidential election. Source: FTX.

FTX added the TRUMP-2020 futures contract (TRUMP), enabling traders to profit from the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, in February of this year.

In a comment to Cointelegraph, Polymarket founder Shane Koplan said that the platform was created not only for speculation, but also for producing answers to current questions.

“The most wonderful thing about markets is their ability to aggregate information and synthesize it into an accurate forecast. This is what price discovery is—a gathering of opinions and their consolidation into a single metric. And this can have incredible social and informational value,” he explained.

To determine prices, Polymarket uses automated market-maker (AMM) technology. Instead of order books, liquidity pools are used for trading. Any platform participant can propose ideas for markets. Administrators, for their part, guarantee that specific terms do not permit ambiguous interpretations.

Earlier, Capriole Investments analyst Charles Edwards said that Donald Trump’s bid for a second term would be a driver of Bitcoin’s price.

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