The likelihood of a Solana ETF being approved within the next 12 months is closely linked to the potential change in the US presidency. It is safe to say that the probability of both has increased since yesterday, stated Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas.
Yes, the odds of a Solana ETF being approved in next 12mo are tied at the hip to the odds of a change in POTUS and safe to say the chances of both are higher today then they were yesterday.. Altho we not giving any exact number on this yet. Way too early. https://t.co/lCdF3EXtLK
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) June 28, 2024
The analyst refrained from specifying an exact timeline for the instrument’s registration, citing that it is still “too early.”
The discussion was prompted by VanEck’s June 27 filing with the SEC for the launch of an exchange-traded fund based on Solana. The company is the issuer of one of the 11 BTC-ETFs approved in January.
Before the debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, Balchunas stated that under current conditions, one should not expect the registration of a SOL-ETF due to the absence of futures-based exchange-traded funds for this cryptocurrency.
The knee jerk reaction here is ‘oh this will never be approved bc there aren’t Solana futures’ agree but.. if change at POTUS i think anything poss. Just imagine Hester Peirce (or someone like that) running the SEC..
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) June 27, 2024
The situation could change with a new president and a change in SEC leadership, the expert noted.
“Imagine Hester Peirce or someone like her at the helm of the Commission,” suggested Balchunas.
Variant Fund’s chief legal officer Jake Chervinsky supported his colleague. He noted that Peirce’s proposed interpretation of the securities and exchange law would be more favorable for Solana-ETF issuers.
Eric is right.
There’s nothing preventing the SEC from approving a spot crypto ETF without a futures market afaik.
It’s just how the agency has interpreted the Exchange Act, but that could change under new leadership.@HesterPeirce has a different view: https://t.co/hgLpcTeeEZ https://t.co/AhS9EPfSts
— Jake Chervinsky (@jchervinsky) June 27, 2024
Adam Cochran, a partner at venture firm Cinneamhain Ventures, disagreed. He stated that it would be wiser to clarify Solana’s presumed status before VanEck filed ETF documents.
Should Solana get an ETF at some point? Absolutely.
But this is also reckless by VanEck, when futures volume, unsettled SEC claims, etc are outstanding with Solana.
Really hope this isn’t giving Gensler an easy setup. https://t.co/93TkQLAl66
— Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth) (@adamscochran) June 27, 2024
Previously, the SEC labeled the asset as a security in its lawsuits against Binance and Coinbase.
In June, digital asset manager 3iQ filed for the registration of the first Solana-ETF in Canada, with an option for staking rewards (6-8% per annum).
Earlier, Matrixport co-founder Daniel Yan expressed the view that the asset could be the next candidate for an exchange-traded fund launch. Jeffrey Kendrick, head of research at Standard Chartered, also predicted the emergence of a SOL ETF in 2025.
This perspective is shared by Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse and Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz.