QCP Capital Declares Bitcoin’s Christmas Rally a Non-Starter

The transfer of $49.4 million in Bitcoin from Mt. Gox triggered a sell-off on December 23, causing the cryptocurrency’s price to drop to $92,500. QCP Capital noted that the anticipated Christmas rally will not occur.

Asia Color — 24 Dec 24

1/ Bitcoin’s anticipated year-end surge has fizzled. Instead, a $49.3M Mt. Gox #BTC move sparked a 14% drop, hitting 92.5k before bouncing to 95k. Liquidity’s drying up, sentiment softens, and ETFs saw their 3rd straight day of outflows. Here’s what’s…

— QCP (@QCPgroup) December 24, 2024

Experts noted the continued outflow of funds from ETFs and a weakening of liquidity. In their view, MicroStrategy’s purchase of 5262 BTC for a “modest” ~$561 million may indicate a reduction in the company’s risk appetite at current levels.

Analysts pointed to the potential for high volatility during the New Year period after the expiration on December 27 due to increased gamma in options.

Cointelegraph also noted the reduced chances of seeing a Santa Claus rally.

However, some traders remain optimistic, hoping for a repeat of the 2016 and 2020 patterns.

I’m ready for the #Bitcoin santa rally! pic.twitter.com/8mbNy8rk9Y

— Mister Crypto (@misterrcrypto) December 22, 2024

According to CoinGecko, from 2014 to 2023, the cryptocurrency market demonstrated a Santa Claus rally 8 out of 10 times, with growth ranging from 0.7% to 11.8% during the week from December 27 to January 2.

The current decline of 2.1% since the beginning of the month is close to the median December value (-2.99%) but falls short of its average (4.8%), according to Coinglass.

Trader Titan of Crypto warned that it is still too early to draw conclusions.

#Bitcoin Most Crucial Trend Line

As long as #BTC stays above this trend line, there’s no reason to worry.

The monthly candle may not look bullish now, but there’s still one week left before it closes. ?

Keep it on your radar. pic.twitter.com/VAyQFZx0G1

— Titan of Crypto (@Washigorira) December 23, 2024

“The monthly candle may not look bullish now, but there’s still one week left before it closes,” he emphasized.

The specialist suggested not to worry as long as the quotes remain above the support line indicated on the chart.

Earlier, Santiment predicted Bitcoin’s return to its peak due to rising FUD sentiment.

Bitfinex previously forecasted the peak of the digital gold bull market in the third to fourth quarters of 2025 with a target price of $200,000. Bitwise pointed to the same mark.

K33 Research indicated a high probability of the bull run’s peak forming on January 17.