QCP sees a bitcoin tailwind in U.S. macro trends

The week ahead could rekindle interest in cryptocurrencies as an inflation hedge, according to QCP Capital.

Asia Color — 13 Jan 25

1/ The U.S. economy is heating up. Friday’s NFP print smashed expectations at 256k (vs. 164k forecast), crushing hopes of imminent rate cuts and sending equities tumbling. Adding to inflation fears are potential Trump-era tariffs looming on the horizon.

— QCP (@QCPgroup) January 13, 2025

They noted that the U.S. economy is showing growing signs of overheating. Friday’s non-farm payrolls report showed job gains of 256,000 versus a 164,000 forecast.

The figures dashed hopes of imminent cuts to the Fed policy rate and sent equities lower. Adding to inflation worries is the prospect of trade tariffs flagged by incoming president Donald Trump, the analysts said.

Despite the unfavourable macro backdrop and negative narratives around Silk Road-related assets, cryptocurrencies have shown resilience:

• Bitcoin is holding above $91,000 support, and Ethereum above $3,100;
• implied volatility continues to decline;
• the options market shows a mild skew toward puts ahead of Trump’s inauguration.

However, this week brings producer price indices (January 14), consumer inflation (January 15) and unemployment data (January 16). 

“These reports could jolt markets further, testing cryptocurrencies’ ability to withstand inflation fears. Given mounting concerns about it, the week could be a serious test for digital assets,” concluded QCP experts.

Earlier, CryptoQuant analysts identified a key metric for assessing the resumption of bitcoin’s bull run.

The firm’s specialists consider the current correction in the leading cryptocurrency an excellent chance to “buy the dip” for additional exposure.