Quantum Technologies vs. Supercomputers: Who Will Crack Bitcoin?

Google experts have unveiled a technology that, with the application of artificial intelligence, could make quantum computing practical in real life, according to an article in Nature.

In the presented work, Deepmind researchers explained that their new AI system, AlphaQubit, has succeeded in correcting persistent errors that have long plagued quantum computers.

“Quantum computers have the potential to revolutionize drug discovery, materials development, and fundamental physics if we can make them work reliably,” states a Google announcement.

These powerful computational devices are extremely fragile: even the slightest environmental interference, such as heat, vibration, electromagnetic fields, or even cosmic rays, can disrupt quantum states, leading to errors and unreliable computations.

A previously published work claims that for quantum computers to be practically applicable, the error rate must not exceed one in a trillion operations.

“Some tasks would take a classical computer billions of years, while a quantum one would need only a few hours. However, new processors are more susceptible to noise compared to classical ones. If we want quantum computers to be reliable, especially at scale, we need to precisely identify and correct these errors,” Google emphasized.

The new AI system, AlphaQubit, uses a complex neural network architecture that has demonstrated high accuracy in identifying and correcting quantum errors.

The solution maintained high accuracy in quantum systems ranging from 17 to 241 qubits. This suggests that the approach could scale to larger systems needed for practical quantum computing.

AlphaQubit faces significant hurdles before implementation.

“Each consistency check in a fast superconducting quantum processor is measured a million times per second. Although AlphaQubit excels at accurately identifying errors, it is still too slow to correct errors in a superconducting processor in real-time,” the developers claim.

Researchers have focused on optimizing speed, scalability, and integration.

The crypto community fears blockchain breaches by quantum computers. Concerns intensified following the “world’s first effective attack” on the Present, Gift-64, and Rectangle algorithms.

The World’s Fastest Computer

While quantum computers have the potential to disrupt blockchains like Bitcoin and Ethereum, the same cannot be said for even the fastest conventional supercomputers.

Scientists from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory announced that their latest supercomputer, El Capitan, can perform 2.79 quadrillion (a number with 15 zeros) calculations per second, making it the fastest computer in the world. It operates 5.4 million times faster than a standard home PC.

LLNL has unveiled the most powerful supercomputer and first #Exascale machine dedicated to #NationalSecurity. With a sustained performance of 1.742 exaFLOPs on the @top500supercomp, El Capitan becomes the first HPC machine to surpass the 2 exaFlOP barrier! https://t.co/A5wStJn417 pic.twitter.com/MlGaeSdm0c

— Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (@Livermore_Lab) November 18, 2024

The device is intended for complex tasks such as modeling, artificial intelligence development, and research. As for concerns about the likelihood of blockchain breaches, cryptography experts consider them unfounded.

“They would need to go through all possible private keys. For example, if the private key length is 256 bits, an attacker trying to forge your transactions would need to check all possible 256-bit keys,” noted Arcium CEO Yannick Schrade.

El Capitan would need 10 billion years to do this due to the computational asymmetry inherent in encryption schemes used, such as elliptic curve cryptography (ECC). It is used in various blockchains, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana.

ECC provides a high level of security, and a more serious threat to it comes from quantum computing, Schrade emphasized. They can overcome computational asymmetry.

“A supercomputer still processes data in binary form using bits, and its power is primarily due to parallelization—performing many tasks simultaneously. Quantum computers, on the other hand, use quantum bits (qubits), which employ quantum principles such as superposition and entanglement. This is a different dimension of computing,” added the Arcium CEO.

Other experts expressed similar views. Modern encryption systems cannot be cracked by any classical means. The threat from new quantum computers is much stronger, noted Duncan Jones, head of cybersecurity at Quantinuum. His company is engaged in quantum computing development.

“In just a decade, we will see sufficiently powerful quantum computers capable of breaking blockchain algorithms. Developers of decentralized networks need to deploy quantum security technology as soon as possible to prepare for such a risk,” he noted.

Just do it

Quantum computers are still a long way off, and supercomputers are incapable of cracking cryptocurrencies, but it’s too early to relax. Ahmed Banafa, a professor at San Jose State University’s College of Engineering, noted that “the blockchain industry is too confident in its supposed security, overlooking potential vulnerabilities.”

“Many proponents equate blockchain immutability with invulnerability, but this view ignores the risks associated with technological advancements like quantum computing and practical issues such as software flaws,” he stated.

While crypto users acknowledge the potential threat, only a few platforms have taken measures to protect against such attacks, the expert added.

“Decentralization is a strength, but at the same time, it complicates the process of launching critical updates to enhance security,” Banafa emphasized.

Previously, several experts stated that the threat of a quantum attack on cryptocurrencies is exaggerated.