Non-commercial traders have sharply cut their bitcoin shorts. They now hold a record net long in the dataset, noted MN Trading founder Michaël van de Poppe, citing analyst Tom McClellan.
A fascinating chart.
Non-commercial traders, primarilly hedge funds and institutions, are currently at one of their most extreme net long positions in #Bitcoin in the entire dataset.
The red line has plunged deeply negative, meaning the “net short position” is at historic… pic.twitter.com/hX3qAd8lw9
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) February 22, 2026
Over the past month, large speculators and hedge funds flipped their net position from +1,000 to -1,600 contracts. That implies the smart money on CME has shifted en masse to betting on a rebound—and did so with “some haste,” McClellan said.
Van de Poppe pointed to two similar episodes in the past:
- in 2023, a sharp reduction in net selling preceded a 70% rise in bitcoin;
- in 2025, a similar setup led to a 190% rally.
Bottom in sight
The MN Trading founder argues the bear market has lasted 14 months—exactly as long as the corrections in 2013–15, 2017–19 and 2021–22.
The best chart in the ecosystem.
The valuation of $BTC vs. Gold.
It’s not about the valuation of $BTC vs. the Dollar, we all know that this is going to up over the years.
It’s about #Bitcoin vs. Gold given that these two are hard assets.
The current valuation is the lowest… pic.twitter.com/Pqxeo9cSz5
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) February 21, 2026
A chart of bitcoin priced in gold underscores the point. In van de Poppe’s view, this pair—not the dollar rate—captures the real state of play, since both are “hard assets”.
Bitcoin peaked against the metal in December 2024, then entered a prolonged decline.
“The October dollar record for bitcoin ($126,000) may not have been a sign of its strength at all. More likely, it was a consequence of the gold and silver rally, which simply dragged up bitcoin’s dollar price. In real terms (in gold), bitcoin has been falling for more than a year,” the expert noted.
He says the market is approaching a bottom. The weekly RSI of the two-asset ratio has dropped to an all-time low—levels seen only at the end of prior cycles.
“We are likely not at the beginning but in the final chapter of the bear market. Every time the bitcoin/gold pair’s RSI hit such extreme lows, it was followed by years of uptrend,” van de Poppe explained.
Additional signals
According to CryptoQuant analyst Ignacio Moreno de Vicente, the 60-day change in USDT market cap has fallen below -$3bn for the first time since late 2022. Back then, bitcoin was carving out a cyclical bottom around $16,000 amid peak fear and forced liquidations.
USDT Just Triggered a Signal Seen Only at the 2022 Bottom
“Extreme liquidity stress has historically marked opportunity, but only once selling exhaustion is confirmed.” – By @MorenoDV_ pic.twitter.com/xxGJgQziEF
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) February 23, 2026
The second episode is unfolding now, with the first cryptocurrency trading in a $65,000–$70,000 range.
On the daily timeframe, there have been three instances of USDT outflows of more than $1bn in a day. Each coincided with local/global lows or sharp spikes in bitcoin’s volatility.
“USDT redemptions on this scale reflect the exit of institutional or large holders from the ecosystem. Historically, this occurs at exhaustion, not at the start of a protracted downtrend,” Moreno de Vicente stressed.
Context matters, however: in previous cycles, once forced deleveraging ended and USDT flows stabilised, bitcoin shifted to sustained gains as liquidity conditions normalised.
The risk/reward, he says, depends directly on stablecoin dynamics:
- if USDT contraction persists, price pressure may remain;
- if outflows stop or turn to inflows, the market should quickly return to a growth phase.
Lookonchain analysts also flagged the return to the market of noted bitcoin supporter Erik Voorhees.
Erik Voorhees(@ErikVoorhees), an early #Bitcoin supporter and founder of ShapeShift, is buying back $ETH.
One year ago, he sold 11,616 $ETH($33.94M) at $2,922.
Recently, he spent 20.38M $USDC to buy back 9,911 $ETH at $2,057.https://t.co/pYQfA1ywec pic.twitter.com/ft9dUkovHS
— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) February 23, 2026
A year ago he sold 11,616 ETH for $33.94m at $2,922. On 22 February, Voorhees spent $20.38m in USDC to buy back 9,911 ETH at $2,057.
Earlier, the Sharpe ratio hinted at an imminent bitcoin recovery. The metric reached -38.38—levels previously seen before market reversals in 2015, 2019 and late 2022.