Speculation Arises: Did ChatGPT Devise Trump’s Tariff Formula?

A theory has emerged online suggesting that the recently announced “liberation” tariffs by Donald Trump were crafted by artificial intelligence.

On April 2, Trump unveiled a general import base tariff of 10% for all countries, along with additional rates for specific nations. For instance, Vietnam faces a 46% tariff, Taiwan and Thailand 32%, Cambodia 49%, China 54%, and the EU 20%.

Some users on X turned to ChatGPT for tariff calculations and received similar figures. Cryptocurrency trader Jordan Fish inquired about a straightforward method to set tariffs for other countries to ensure the US is on equal footing amid a trade deficit.

Trump team just asked ChatGPT and shipped it ?? pic.twitter.com/tBypZ7GMWf

— Cobie (@cobie) April 3, 2025

The chatbot suggested applying a tariff for each trading partner that corresponds to the deficit relative to total imports. The formula is as follows:

Tariff rate (%) = max(10, (trade balance deficit + total imports) *100)

For example, if the US has a $20 billion deficit with imports from a country totaling $100 billion, the rate would be (20/100)*100=20%.

A user known as DCinvestor repeated the question and received the same response. ChatGPT emphasized that the formula had not been used before—it was its own creation.

I think they asked ChatGPT to calculate the tariffs from other countries, which is why the tariffs make absolutely no fucking sense.

They’re simply dividing the trade deficit we have with a country with our imports from that country, or using 10%, whichever is greater. https://t.co/Rc45V7qxHl pic.twitter.com/SUu2syKbHS

— Destiny | Steven Bonnell II (@TheOmniLiberal) April 2, 2025

“I think they asked ChatGPT to calculate the tariffs from other countries, and that’s why the numbers make absolutely no sense. They’re simply dividing the trade deficit we have with a country by our imports from that country, or setting 10%, whichever is greater,” noted Steven Bonnell.

Journal of Public Economics editor Wojtek Kopczuk conducted a similar experiment and received a corresponding answer.

Author Krishnan Rohit highlighted that GPT-4o, o3, Gemini 2.5 Pro, Claude 3.7, and Grok all produced the same result.

This might be the first large-scale application of AI technology to geopolitics.. 4o, o3 high, Gemini 2.5 pro, Claude 3.7, Grok all give the same answer to the question on how to impose tariffs easily. pic.twitter.com/r1GGubcz8c

— rohit (@krishnanrohit) April 3, 2025

“This might be the first large-scale application of AI technology to geopolitics,” he noted.

The cryptocurrency market reacted negatively to the introduction of new US tariffs. Bitcoin, after a short-term rise above $88,000, fell to around $82,000. At the time of writing, the leading cryptocurrency is trading around $83,000.

Nansen believes that the cryptocurrency market may reach a local bottom in the next two months. The Guardian noted that the announcement of retaliatory tariffs against US trading partners could trigger a chain reaction, potentially escalating into a “global economic war.”

Back on March 26, Glassnode analysts reported that whales acquired $11.2 billion worth of bitcoin over two weeks. This is the fastest accumulation rate since August 2024.