A “decisive” slide in bitcoin below $90,000 could trigger further losses, warned Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, The Block reported.
In a research note, the analyst pointed to the risk of selling in spot BTC ETFs should that scenario materialise.
“We think that with a clean break lower through $90,000 for bitcoin, in the short term a further 10% decline to $80,000 is possible,” he wrote.
According to Kendrick, the average post–US election purchase price via ETFs stands at $94,000 and is near breakeven.
At the time of writing, the leading cryptocurrency was trading around $96,900, according to CoinGecko. On January 13 it had already dropped to roughly $90,000, and there is a risk the “sell-off becomes self-fulfilling”, the analyst noted.
He added that digital assets have been under macroeconomic pressure since December 18, when the Fed chair Jerome Powell signalled a “hawkish” policy on further cuts to the key rate.
Despite short-term risks, Kendrick emphasised optimism about bitcoin’s prospects. He still expects the cryptocurrency to reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, and sees dips as buying opportunities.
Key drivers — news and macroeconomics
K33 analysts also pointed to the continuing influence of macro data on digital assets.
High correlations and broad de-risking amidst dollar strength pushed BTC below $90k. We're entering a week destined for unpredictable action, culminating in Trump's inauguration. Will it be a sell-the-news event?https://t.co/lWHR5yE4Ge pic.twitter.com/JmV9XtoWdn
— K33 Research (@K33Research) January 14, 2025
This led Vetle Lunde and David Zimmerman, in a client report, to question whether Donald Trump’s inauguration remains a “sell-the-news” opportunity. Earlier they had taken that stance, suggesting that investors’ expectations from crypto-friendly promises would collide with the reality of “Washington’s slow-moving political machine”.
Industry-related headlines continue to influence the market, the experts acknowledged. After the US Department of Justice received approval to sell 69,370 BTC from the Silk Road darknet marketplace, bitcoin briefly slipped below $90,000. Reports that Trump would sign a number of crypto-related executive orders in his first days were enough to lift prices back to current levels.
However, the inauguration, which will take place on January 20, is already “priced in”, Lunde and Zimmerman believe. Near-term price moves in digital gold are more likely to be tied to US macroeconomic releases, including producer and consumer inflation indices this week.
In the longer term, the analysts are optimistic about the impact of Trump’s policy on bitcoin. In his first presidential term he focused on supporting the stock market and economic growth, cutting taxes and deregulating. They expect a similar approach to continue.
Earlier, specialists at QCP Capital saw positives for bitcoin in US macroeconomic trends. But the cryptocurrency still faces a serious test of its status as an inflation hedge, they said.