Standard Chartered says bitcoin may never again fall below $100,000

Standard Chartered's Geoffrey Kendrick: bitcoin may never fall below $100,000 again.

Bitcoin may never again drop below $100,000. So said Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, according to The Block. 

That, however, hinges on continued benign macroeconomic and geopolitical developments.

In his words, «market fear has turned to hope». The trigger, he said, was progress in US–China trade talks. Easing tensions have buoyed risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Kendrick tracks the ratio of bitcoin’s market cap to gold’s. A break above 30, he expects, would signal that fear has ebbed.

Another marker of strength is inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs. The analyst noted that more than $2bn exited gold funds last week. If even half of that migrated into bitcoin vehicles, it would be a powerful sign of improving sentiment.

The ultimate confirmation of the positive trend, Kendrick said, would be bitcoin setting a new all-time high. In his view, that would refute the notion that price peaks are tied to the halving cycle.

He also pointed to the upcoming FOMC meeting. A cut of 25 basis points is expected, which Kendrick sees as supportive for bitcoin. 

Also due this week are earnings from tech giants and crypto firms Strategy and Coinbase.

«If this week goes well, bitcoin may NEVER again fall below $100,000,» Kendrick concluded.

7m BTC back in profit

The cryptocurrency’s price has cleared $112,000 and $113,000. As a result, about 7m BTC held by short-term investors have returned to profit, noted an analyst going by the pseudonym Crazzyblockk.

Bitcoin Reclaims Key Cost Bases — Nearly 7 Million BTC Back in Profit, Signaling Renewed Confidence

“Bitcoin’s reclaiming of these critical ‘cost basis zones’ marks a psychological and structural shift back toward optimism.” – By @Crazzyblockk

Link ⤵️https://t.co/na3fWJzW4U pic.twitter.com/Z0MnfSGu0h

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) October 27, 2025

The asset has held above three key cost bases for different investor cohorts:

• holders with a holding period up to six months: ~$112,000;
• investors who bought over the past month: ~$113,000;
• new entrants (up to one week): ~$110,000.

These levels reflect the average entry prices for the most active participants, the analyst said. Holding above them often signals a shift from bearish to bullish sentiment.

Of the nearly 7m BTC back in profit, 5.1m belong to investors with a holding period of up to six months. Another 1.8m BTC are held by those who entered over the past month.

Crazzyblockk stressed that unrealised profit is a «behavioural driver». When short-term holders see their positions rise, confidence grows. That motivates them to hold longer or add exposure, signalling market strength.

He concluded that returning to these cost zones marks a psychological shift toward optimism. Further trading above these levels would confirm confidence and could underpin the next stage of growth. A drop below these averages, by contrast, would point to weakness and indecision.

At the time of writing, the first cryptocurrency trades around $113,900, down 1.6% over the past 24 hours.

Cautious positioning

After the market sell-off, large funds began actively buying put contracts to hedge against further declines, Deribit analysts reported.

1) Since 10/10, Options positioning heavily cautious; Funds protecting with 100-107k primary strikes via outright Puts+spreads.
The Overwrite Fund continues to select & rotate aggressive Call Strikes.

OG whales supplied Spot.
Preliminary consensus on Trade deal may free upside. pic.twitter.com/MQEru2Ue6u

— Deribit Insights (@DeribitInsights) October 26, 2025

The primary strategy has been buying options that protect against a drop to $100,000–107,000. At the same time, a large player dubbed the Overwrite Fund sold upside contracts. Early investors selling spot bitcoin also added pressure.

Analysts noted a rise in «volatility skew». It indicates that demand for downside options now exceeds that for upside contracts. That reflects not only hedging against declines but also active call selling by the Overwrite Fund. Participants also rolled their bullish bets from October into November, choosing higher targets — $114,000 and $120,000.

In short, funds are leaning against rallies above $110,000–120,000 while hedging against drops below $100,000–110,000. 

Analysts also recorded a large exodus from positions that had targeted $150,000 by December.

Even so, optimists remain: some funds used the setup to buy November contracts that would profit if prices rise to $125,000–135,000.

Volatility is gradually ebbing, analysts said, but demand for protection remains high. Sales by large bitcoin holders and low liquidity in altcoins are causes for concern. On the other hand, exchange transparency allows large funds to buy dips below $106,000–107,000.

Earlier this month, Kendrick predicted a bitcoin drop below $100,000.