A practicing trader and founder of the Crypto Mentors project, Nikita Semov, discusses the current market situation.
Despite a significant rally from the $29,000 level, we remain in a downward-trend phase. The current volume-driven reaction in the $37,000–$39,000 zone indicates buyer interest, manifested as an upward move. But this is only a correction to the global short impulse.
Ending global selling and a turning point to an uptrend would occur with a break and retest of the $50,000 level. In such a scenario one could even expect a potential new high. However, for now the probability of realization is low.
In the current balance of $39,500–$41,800 there is a dominance of buying activity, so the most likely scenario is a break of the local resistance at $41,800 and a test of the $42,700–$43,200 range.
Since it is located quite close, there is a high likelihood to pass this level and move to the next volume-resistance zone. From there, with a greater probability, we will get a seller’s reaction with a setup aimed at updating the minimum price ($29,000), where the EQL was formed.
The current upward movement is a correction to the larger downward impulse. Longs can only be sought within level-to-level moves, and in the designated heavy selling zones there are medium-term short options.
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