A practicing trader and founder of the Crypto Shaman project Crypto Shaman Vadim Shovkun.
In the latest review of the market, the discussion centered on a potential Ethereum rebound. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap entered the first buy zone, bounced off the PoC and is testing higher levels.
From the latest review of the Bitcoin market, one can say that the locally main scenario of a rise to $44,000 played out with a subsequent pullback. The price did not break the January 10 low and moved into a range. At this point, local expectations should be revised.
The first thing to note is that market volatility remains at a yearly low. Many remarks and observations from previous reviews remain relevant today.
The weekly timeframe still looks quite bleak. The close of the penultimate candle is below the close of the week ending September (effectively breaking the HL/HH structure).
The full engulfing of the latest growth wave, which sent the ATH clearly not in favour of a rapid return to a bullish trend, is a strong signal that the price will at least stall in a $40,000-$60,000 range for many months; at best it will fall below $40,000 (a prolonged range already in the $30,000-$60,000 zone).
In the last two bars of the weekly timeframe there is a small bullish attempt to buy the dip. Potentially the current weekly candle could close as a bullish pin bar. This, together with the previous bar which had a decent tail, opens prospects for a rise to the $45,000-$46,000 area next week.
On the four-hour timeframe there is consolidation above the PoC after a stop-hunt above January 10 and a retest of that point. Also worth noting is the positive momentum relative to the S&P 500 index.
Bitcoin’s decline yesterday elicited little reaction; today a small rebound in the index quotes was accompanied by a notable move in the price of the leading cryptocurrency.
However, one should understand that even on medium timeframes selling dominates. After the January 5 pattern BUI forms, one should expect a rise to the zone $44,950-$46,250. Only after touching $48,000 can we speak of a return to some sustained positive dynamics.