A practicing trader and founder of the Crypto Mentors project, Nikita Semov, discusses the current market situation.
Price Action and VSA
Most market participants expect a continuation of the uptrend, but quotes indicate a number of interesting points.
Firstly, a not very energetic move with a fairly gradual attack angle has formed, suggesting buyer weakness at the moment (this refers to wave AB).
Secondly, on this move, BUNs have appeared at the highs, where we see a breakdown of the projection from purchases. This signals a high probability of a corrective move to the level of $11,479. Upon reaching that level, a price reversal is expected and the uptrend is likely to resume, provided braking formations appear.
In the VSA analysis, the formation fits into JOC + potential BTC (NR). This slowing of buying against a large seller probably indicates fading bullish sentiment, with a possible spike in a selling candle.
The appearance of BUNs (bars indicating the level of wrongness, suggesting seller weakness) in most cases signals not inefficient selling. In the medium term, Bitcoin looks very strong; in the near term, a good move higher is expected.
Analysis of the Horizontal Volume Profile
Locally we observe a decent volume cluster in the range $11,810-$11,875, which is currently being sold into and shows no buying strength. Right below us lies the core of the current move ($11,640-$11,690), which acts as the first support. To maintain a healthy buying dynamic, it is desirable to hold this zone.
Looking a bit broader, we see very similar delta-imbalance scenarios. A lot of selling is being poured into the market, yet someone is neatly scooping it up with limit orders. The open interest indicates accumulation rather than liquidation, so after the correction one can expect a continuation of the upmove with new highs.
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