A practising trader and founder of the Crypto Mentors project, Nikita Semov, explains the current market situation.
Bitcoin has again hit an all-time high after a prolonged balance or squeeze. This is, undoubtedly, a positive indicator of the predominance of buyers. However, at present it is essential to be extremely cautious.
The breakout alone is not a basis for continuing the uptrend. All parameters of the breakout formation must be considered. At the time of writing, the breakout does not look strong and is not comparable with the balance from which we emerged. A projection of the price can be judged only after the appearance of the first full-bodied selling candle on the hourly timeframe.
If the price, currently around $62 900, tests a structural level, there is a high likelihood of forming a false breakout. It would signal a reversal formation.
A negative factor to note is the divergence in the cumulative delta. It reflects an insufficient level of liquidity among aggressive buyers, a negative sign as extremes widen.
Viewed in the four-hour timeframe, the breakout bar shows good buyer control in the moment, which somewhat softens the picture.
On a local scale, a two-phase accumulation is evident, tilted toward buying. However, it is important to monitor the subsequent price dynamics.
One can expect either a test of the structural level at $61 840 or a test of the POC at $60 000. However, in the second scenario it is desirable to see a weak move with no aggressive selling, characterised by low liquidity and the absence of imbalances.
If an impulsive dump occurs, the probability of a resumption of buying would be very low.
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