A practising trader and founder of the Crypto Shaman project, Vadim Shovkun, explains the current market situation. Crypto Shaman.
S&P 500
The equity market continues to tilt negative: the entire rebound has been swallowed by sellers, and volumes have yet to materialise. No serious rebound or rally is expected for now.
Bitcoin
Digital gold prices have fallen sharply, the momentum from last week has been absorbed. The price is trying to break out of the downtrend channel.
For now, Bitcoin moves within $18,400–20,400; the move should be regarded as flat, with a likely downside breakout from the range.
On the daily time frame, the price failed to settle above the trend line, drawing a new wave of declines.
According to sentiment analysis, there has recently been a surge of people wanting to buy cryptocurrency on social networks.
A somewhat different situation exists for those who want to sell:
Useful observations can be drawn from the liquidations chart for the past week and the four-month trading range.
Over the last three months there were 10 short liquidations and 10 long liquidations above the 2,400 BTC mark. Total long liquidations were slightly higher (by contract count). There have also been more peak spikes in long liquidations (noted above 3,600 BTC).
Last week there was a brief update of the range highs at $18,400–20,400. Meanwhile, the number of short liquidations was at a minimum, even though around $20,400 one would expect a lot of liquidity to gather.
Conclusions
The market remains slightly tilted toward buyers, as evidenced by the liquidation chart and social-media sentiment.
From a technical standpoint, the price has exited the ascending channel and is pressing toward a cascade of liquidity at $18,400–17,600.
The equity market picture also does not inspire confidence in a meaningful rally. This week (Thursday–Friday) a large number of corporate earnings reports are due, which are likely to negatively affect investor sentiment. Accordingly, the Bitcoin outlook.
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