The trader Ilya Meshcheryakov explains the current market situation.
Over the past week Bitcoin attempted to move below $11,300 as well as to breach the $12,000 mark. In the end we got exactly what I warned about earlier — BTC has been stuck in the $11,000-$12,000 range for a long time, only periodically offering volatility for long- and short-squeezes.
The dominant medium-term scenario has not changed, but Bitcoin is likely to show a few more squeezes. First to be squeezed out will be the buyers. Despite yesterday’s drop to $11,600, there are still many zones of likely stop-loss levels for buyers — below $11,500 and $11,300 (marked on the chart).
Possible zones of stop-losses for buyers (marked in red on the right). The 30-minute BTC/USDT chart from TradingView.
As for the sellers, they were already punished during the move up to $12,460. Gains with sharp declines alternated twice. Most likely, in the near term they will be left alone, and a rise above $12,200 will be aimed at continuing the trend.
Short squeezes with a quick rebound on a break of $12,000 (arrows indicate) on a small time frame. Five-minute BTC/USDT from TradingView.
Long-term prospects are unchanged — even though the first target level of $12,300 was reached, this cannot really be called the end of the global uptrend. The accumulation zone of $8,800-$9,900 was too wide, and now the intermediate zone of $11,000-$12,000. The genuine long-term target for the uptrend remains $13,100.
At present any exit from the consolidation is tied to squeezes, and only a few altcoins show returns, but they have a complex selection dynamics. Medium-term prospects for the market are more negative, while the long term looks fairly solid.
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