A practising trader and founder of the project Crypto Mentors, Nikita Semov, explains the current market situation.
Bar-by-bar analysis
The previous week closed in line with our forecast of August 3. This means the market is under the sway of large capital. Based on last week’s bar, the direction of the current week can be inferred.
The spread is narrow, indicating a small player is buying. This same bar is a confirmation after an engulfing pattern appeared in the wave. Volume is medium, rising, reflecting the intent of large capital.
According to the analysis of yellow bars, the bar under consideration moved slightly less on similar volume. Such a move cannot be called critical; the buying priority should be maintained.
According to the Japanese candlesticks, ‘Three White Soldiers’ — the alternative to ‘Three Black Soldiers’ from the screenshot, and ‘thinking’, which provides information about the need to pay attention to the market and about the probable continuation of the rise.
Price Action and VSA
Price behaves plainly and obviously from the standpoint of price and volume action. When comparing the attack angle (red rectangles), one can conclude that the seller is weakening. The priority is entirely bullish, and the expectation to break through $12,123 is primary.
A common mistake is to confuse the yellow bar with a support and assume a strong selling zone, whereas in fact this is a typical ‘reversal’ bar (bar of a level of disbelief), signaling serious buyers.
A 1/2 retracement did not hold this bar, further indicating a fake-out shakeout of excess participants on the path to new local highs.
Delta Analysis
The breakout was fully controlled by buyers, confirming the quality of this impulse. The main control zone is $11,855-$11,930. It is there that we expect a test followed by a continuation of the rise.
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