Trader flags Bitcoin price-support level

A practising trader and founder of the Crypto Mentors project, Nikita Semov, explains the current market situation.

Despite the allegedly rapid bounce and positive market sentiment, there are still too many factors pointing to the manipulative nature of the current rally and a likely update of the lows to $28,800.

If we compare the spot quotes on Binance and Binance Futures, on the spot market we saw a false breakout of the May 19 extreme, while on the futures there wasn’t one. What does that indicate?

Judging by open interest metrics, over the past month a large build-up of long positions has occurred. This is also confirmed by the horizontal cross-section of delta, where a clear tilt toward market buys is visible.

Not surprisingly, we did not fall to $20,000–$25,000 — the major stops and liquidations were not touched.

This factor is an indirect indicator of a greater probability of a decline.

First, if it seems that there is a heavy buying spree underway, then let’s look at the turnaround from June 8: in two days the $37,500 level was reached. We are not even close to that value now.

Secondly, in the upper portions of the buying bars there is a pattern of engulfing market aggression. This indicates strong counterparty liquidity from sellers.

Thirdly, we have not yet returned to the value zone of the global balance. On the contrary, a test of the lower boundary is underway, which is a strong selling level.

Thus, we have factors of buyer weakness, we are in a selling zone and there is an even tougher EQL around $28 800.

With so many buyers, the price is unlikely to push above $41 000. The sole support currently is at around $32 620; once breached, one can expect a full-scale decline.

Entering any non-intraday long positions before a close above $35 800 is dangerous (this is June’s POC). If we manage to get above, a move to $41 000 can be expected.

Only after exiting the balance to the upside (a close above $41 000) can we speak of long-term bullish prospects.

Right now we might see a reaction from $32 600, but before clearing $35 800 opening long-term positions is risky. If the price falls below $32 600, a rapid decline with new lows is likely.

Subscribe to ForkLog news on Telegram: ForkLog Feed — the full news feed, ForkLog — the most important news, infographics and opinions.