A practising trader and founder of the Crypto Shaman project Crypto Shaman Vadim Shovkun explains the current market situation.
\n\n\n\n
This briefing updates the situation described in the latest analytics.
\n\n\n\n
After a sharp drop, Bitcoin price has held above the key psychological level of $43 000.
\n\n\n\n
First, it is worth noting that the intraday low on January 10 was recorded about $100 from the main liquidity shelf. Since then, there has been a brisk rebound.
\n\n\n\n
The failure to reach $39 500 merely indicates that it is likely to be breached in the near term. Had this level been reached, and Bitcoin had shown a similarly brisk rebound, the situation would have favoured taking long positions.
\n\n\n\n
The key marker for breaking the local downtrend remains $48 480. Reaching this level would mean three things: a return to the monthly accumulation range, a hold above the PoC of this range, and above the PoC of the previous growth wave on the daily timeframe. But for relatively safe longs, it is enough to hold above $46 370.
\n\n\n\n
It is also important to note that a relatively long (over two months) and fairly deep (more than 40%) decline, especially after the engulfing of a large up-move, does not usually end with a quick (V-shaped) reversal. Mid-term, movement in the $40,000-$46,300 or even $40,000-$52,000 area could stretch for several months.
\n\n\n
\n\n\n
The $44,950–$46,250 zone is a zone for short positions with an attractive R/R for intraday trades. The market’s main expectation is a move below $39,500.