The trader Ilya Meshcheryakov explains the current market situation.
Last week was favorable for the entire crypto market: Ethereum hit its yearly highs, many other coins posted double-digit percentage gains. Bitcoin broke above resistance at $12 000, despite a significant pullback to $11 100.
The long-term picture remains bullish, and the mid-term outlook is moderately positive, but more on that below.
Starting with the global trend — in the previous briefing I noted that the current consolidation is almost a perfect copy of the previous accumulation zone. This is evident in the chart below. If this holds, the breakout above $12 000 will be genuine.
Volume distribution across price levels suggests that a large build near $6000 could have been realized at an average price of $9200, but this did not occur, as the price moved noticeably higher. This indicates that in the $8800-$9900 range there was position accumulation, which continues today.
Volume profile for the current uptrend (histogram on the left) and a comparative analysis of two consolidations (highlighted in blue). Four-hour BTC/USDT chart from TradingView.
In the mid term, the market looks broadly positive. BTC has strong, though selective, support from altcoins, and is confidently overcoming the $12 000 level.
Local pullbacks are possible; we often see this when BTC breaches important psychological levels. Strong support levels are $11 700, $11 550 and the recently breached $12 000 level.
As for resistance levels, they are $12 067 and $12 280.
Local support and resistance levels for Bitcoin price. Fifteen-minute BTC/USDT chart from TradingView.
Thus, the market remains positive, with quite a few factors pointing to continued growth. If we do not count negative speculative scenarios (long squeezes), there are no solid arguments for a trend reversal at the moment.
Altcoins, which over the last year acted as harbingers of Bitcoin’s rally, are already showing activity, so a breakout should come in the near term.
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