The trader Илья Мещеряков explains the current market situation.
In the cryptocurrency market has occurred the first significant correction in two and a half weeks. Bitcoin has fallen about $3,000 from its highs and, at the time of writing, is trading around $16,500.
The altcoin market is falling at a faster pace. This has pushed Bitcoin’s dominance index back above 62%.
The decline was catalysed by a break below the lower boundary of the price channel, where buy stop orders are concentrated. This triggered widespread selling.
As for the downside targets, they have already been reached — the height of the pattern points to about $16,200–$16,300. A more severe drop could signal the abandonment of the scenario of breaching the all-time high.
However, a formation similar in structure had appeared previously. Then, in early November, the outcome was quite favourable, and Bitcoin managed to return to an uptrend. Of course, circumstances differ, but there is no need to panic yet. The decisive level is $15,800, from which the previous growth impulse began.
A break of $15,800 would be a direct path to the psychological $15,000 level, and then lower — to $13,900. The levels remain quite relevant — in the 2017 bull market before reaching $20,000, the correction amounted to about $4,800 in just a couple of days.
Comparison of the previous corrective formation with the current one (in red). Hourly BTC/USDT chart from TradingView.
The altcoin market, despite a solid rise, has again turned down not only against USDT but also against BTC. For a recovery, either a broad rally or at least a halt in Bitcoin’s decline is needed. There are currently no standout altcoins in the market.
Bitcoin is repeating the 2017 scenario—before an expected test of the all-time high, we are seeing a sizable and very rapid pullback that could sweep stop-losses across nearly all long positions (including modest 3x–5x leverage).
It’s too soon to declare a trend reversal, but it is important to watch the key level of $15,800. A break of it could trigger even larger sell-offs.
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