A practising trader and founder of the Crypto Mentors project, Nikita Semov, discusses the current market situation.
Bitcoin is trading around $36,000. Can it break through this level, what would be needed, and what would be the first stop? First, let us examine the global picture on the weekly time frame.
Looking at the profile of the entire balance, one can notice that in the last downward move we breached the value area (VA). This positioned the entire volume into selling, so above us there is strong resistance at $35,800 (POC of the entire balance).
Last week generated an anomalous volume (one of the largest in the past year), located in the tail of the weekly bar. The setup suggests the emergence of a buyer who managed to restrain the price. From such patterns, one can expect a rally.
If you look globally at the entire balance, a pronounced delta divergence is visible — buying in the market is rising, but the price does not respond. This indicates robust resistance from limit sells.
Now turning to the daily charts. The current monthly POC sits below the price, underscoring an anomalous volume spike near $30,000. Yet around $35,800, substantial volume was generated in June as well. Therefore, on testing these levels, the POC could shift higher, a pattern indicating further downside.
The footprint clearly shows reactive activity forming (a large number of limit sell orders) in the upper parts of the bars of the upmove. The price keeps hitting liquidity, which is not ideal for an uptrend.
The cumulative delta corroborates what the footprint shows — a pronounced divergence indicating the inefficiency of current market purchases. The buyer is placing money but not achieving results.
Last week showed that BTC has upside potential. If buyers hold above $36,000, the price could be in the range of $40,000-$41,000.
The nearest support is in the $32,250-$33,000 area. The possibility of a tighter range cannot be ruled out.
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