Trader lays out conditions for Bitcoin price rise

A practicing trader and founder of the project Crypto Shaman Vadim Shovkun explains the current market situation.

The sharpened geopolitical situation has driven down stocks and cryptocurrency markets. It is currently difficult to say with 100% probability where the price will move, but some signals can be considered.

All the decline, beginning at $44,000, is being squeezed into a descending wedge. The price has almost reached the PoC of the two-week trading range in January. On February 21, a fairly large buying volume was injected, comparable to the volume on February 10. If the latter can be characterised as selling (due to the engulfing), today is, for the moment, buying.

Bearish moments should also be noted. The S&P 500 index has engulfed the entire rebound in recent weeks. The Bitcoin weekly timeframe has two consecutive bearish candles with pin bars on top. The impulse rise since the start of February has been completely absorbed, and the monthly timeframe currently shows a long upper wick.

As long as the price remains above $37,000, expectations are bullish. For a full rise, a period of consolidation in the $38,000-$39,000 area is needed, as well as a pickup in buying on the S&P 500.

In this case, geopolitics must also be monitored — for a sustained rise, the situation should reach a plateau so that, at least for a few days, the pressure does not continue to mount.

A break below $37,000 (PoC) would force a reassessment in favour of a new low under $33,000.

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