Trader likens bitcoin’s sideways trade to a “lull before the storm”

Trader says bitcoin’s range is a lull before a rally, even as gold and silver set records.

Bitcoin’s current sideways drift, set against record gains in gold and silver, fits a historical pattern that is typically followed by a rally in digital assets, according to a trader known as Bull Theory.

🚨 WHY IS BITCOIN DOWN -30% FROM ITS PEAK WHILE GOLD AND SILVER ARE GOING PARABOLIC?

Because Gold and Silver tops first, then Bitcoin starts its rally.

Here is what happened last time 👇

After the March 2020 crash, the Fed injected massive liquidity into the system. The first… pic.twitter.com/3Wvhd5lz3V

— Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio) December 29, 2025

He noted that after the March 2020 crash during the COVID-19 pandemic, precious metals were first to respond to liquidity from the Fed. The price of gold rose from $1,450 to $2,075, and silver from $12 to $29. Bitcoin stayed in a $9,000–12,000 range.

Traditional assets peaked in August—after which capital rotated into riskier sectors, including cryptocurrencies. From August 2020 to May 2021, the price of the leading cryptocurrency jumped from $12,000 to $64,800, and total market capitalisation increased eightfold.

Bull Theory sees a mirror image today: gold and silver have hit record highs, while bitcoin is stuck in a narrow range after the 10–11 October sell-off.

Yet the current cycle differs somewhat from the previous one—there are more catalysts in play.

“The previous cycle was driven, first and foremost, by monetary liquidity. Today we are seeing a unique configuration, where an external stimulus is amplified by a qualitative change in the market’s internal structure. The overall picture is similar, but the foundation is firmer and the potential impulse more powerful,” the trader believes.

Beyond the Fed’s actions, he flagged the following drivers:

• regulatory shifts: an expected easing of supplementary leverage ratio requirements for banks, potentially freeing up trillions of dollars to increase leverage across markets;
• institutional infrastructure: regulatory certainty is rising, paving the way for the launch of new spot ETFs, and the largest asset managers have already integrated cryptocurrencies into their investment products;
• fiscal and political support: the administration of US president Donald Trump has announced an economic stimulus programme for households; the appointment of a new Fed chair is nearing.

“That is why the current range in bitcoin is not the start of a bear market, but rather a lull before the storm,” Bull Theory concluded.

Additional positives

Long-term bitcoin holders have stopped selling for the first time since July. Crypto investor and entrepreneur Ted Pillows says this could set the stage for a “relief rally”.

Long-term holders have stopped selling $BTC for the first time since July 2025.

Things are looking good for a relief rally here. pic.twitter.com/t7Sl2hS9Ub

— Ted (@TedPillows) December 29, 2025

An analyst going by Jelle pointed to a forming “hidden bullish divergence” on the monthly chart of the digital gold, which could signal an impending breakout.

#Bitcoin — Monthly chart

Potential hidden bullish divergence forming here.

Needs to end the month in the green to lock in — close above $90,360 and we’re golden.

Fingers crossed. pic.twitter.com/viBfFlQdrT

— Jelle (@CryptoJelleNL) December 29, 2025

“Bitcoin needs to end the month in the green to lock this in; a close above $90,360 and we’re golden,” he noted.

A trader known as Captain Faibik argues that the battle around $90,000 is pivotal: this is where the resistance line of a descending broadening wedge sits on the eight-hour chart.

Clearing that barrier would mark not just a local rise but a decisive break of the entire bearish structure, technically opening the way to a pattern target around $122,000.

$BTC is on the verge of upside Breakout from Descending Broadening wedge..!!

If Breakout is successful, January could be a Bullish month.. 📈#Crypto #Bitcoin #BTC #BTCUSD pic.twitter.com/dZRds26hZC

— Captain Faibik 🐺 (@CryptoFaibik) December 29, 2025

“If the market manages it, January could be outright bullish,” he stressed.

At the time of writing, bitcoin trades around $87,800, down 1.8% over the past 24 hours.

Earlier, investor Anthony Pompliano forecast a steady 2026 for the leading cryptocurrency. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan went further—in his view, the asset will continue to deliver resilient returns over the next decade.