A practicing trader and founder of the project Crypto Shaman Vadim Shovkun.
Analyzing the market situation, one cannot fail to note the prospect of a serious reversal of the local uptrend.
On the daily timeframe, it is clear how the price has run into a large cluster of volume in the lower zone of the February–May consolidation. The entire accumulation zone at $48,000-$60,000 is positioned for selling due to the impulsive and prolonged exit from this range.
There are multiple bearish divergences on the RSI indicator. The overall uptrend is characterized as waning (a rounding). There has also been a pronounced decline in volume, starting at the end of last month. All of these signs point to an approaching local correction for Bitcoin.
Analyzing the 4-hour timeframe, there are also signs of market weakness. Since July 21, the price has been squeezed into a large rising wedge. At the time of writing, quotes have breached the wedge’s lower boundary on increased volume.
The most probable scenario for development is a decline via a possible retest of the wedge’s lower boundary. The $47,400-$47,700 zone is an interesting area to look for entry points with the aim of seeing Bitcoin around $40,000.
The $48,480 level is an invalidation point for the local downside, as reaching it would constitute a false breakout from the wedge.
A move below the $43,979 mark would form the first BOS (break of structure), and also a LH&LL structure, which would be another argument in favour of further decline.
The first target is the area $39,000-$40,150. This zone is strong for several reasons: here lies the PoC (Point of Control) of the entire monthly rise, as well as the upper boundary of two months of accumulation from late May to late June (the range $29,000-$40,000). In this green zone, partial profit-taking on short positions can be considered, as well as careful, short-term purchases.
A breakout of the $37,260 mark would form a second BOS (break of structure), which in turn would completely overturn the entire upward monthly trend, and the question of updating local lows would be a matter of time.
The overall market dynamics are currently fairly weak, with multiple technical signs pointing to a Bitcoin decline.