The current market situation is described by trader Ilya Meshcheryakov.
The market’s gloomy background abruptly gave way to a clearly upbeat mood — it seemed BTC simply ignored stock-market declines, problems with withdrawals at OKEx and even a narrow market rally: after breaking through $11,800, only BTC rose, while money flowed out of the altcoins.
An explanation for Bitcoin’s resilience arrived swiftly — PayPal announced the possibility of using cryptocurrencies within its service, and Tether, amid fanfare for the epic surpassing of Bitcoin crossing $13,000, issued almost half a billion USDT.
Thus, my BTC plan has failed; the coin has held above $11,800 and, at the time of writing, was trading around $12,850 with a local high of $13,200.
It is hard to judge how fairly the market priced the current PayPal integration, but the latest accumulation around $11,300–$11,600 (lower on the chart) clearly suggests that this was not a surprise for the markets.
Bitcoin is currently in a precarious position — a high level of local overbought conditions is often followed by a downside move.
But many other market participants think the same, prompting them to open short positions at current prices, which in turn provides fuel for further upside via their stop-losses and liquidations.
Also weighing on BTC is the growing decoupling from the NASDAQ index — for months they acted as close allies, mirroring moves even on the 15-minute chart. Now NASDAQ has been in trouble for a second straight week, while BTC has climbed to its year-to-date highs.
This could continue for some time, but only until a sharper stock-market rout — then capital outflows from cryptocurrencies as risk assets would be unstoppable by any PayPal.
Technically, a strong support level sits at $12,690 — the chart shows buyers preventing a fall below this level. A false break below it could give a good long signal with a small SL, and moving below $12,500 would open the path back to $12,000.
Thus BTC has paused in a precarious stance — the buoyancy helps only while risk appetite remains in a gradual decline rather than a sharp one. In the medium term, buyers are serious and are catching every dip, forging new highs.
Apparently, the cryptocurrency market (and likely altcoins) will still delight buyers, but will hit hard those who fail to exit positions in time.
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