The trader Илья Мещеряков explains the current market situation.
Last week Bitcoin breached the lower boundary of the triangle and fell to $29,000, implementing the previous review scenario. This rapid move was triggered by stop orders being hit, the liquidation of mid-term buyers, and new sellers taking positions on the break of the trend line.
Bitcoin first recovered to around $33,800, forming a new resistance zone and a local consolidation zone. The further scenario largely depends on interaction with the current resistance, but there are already signs pointing to a probable outcome.
We are seeing rising local price lows with resistance unchanged—a kind of compression of the zone. In most cases this leads to a breakout of the zone to the upside and further impulsive bullish movement. They could push the price to $36,000–$37,000; these same levels would coincide with touches of the global resistance line.
Global triangle on BTC, the current consolidation zone (blue) and the current resistance zone (red). Four-hour chart of BTC/USDT on Binance from TradingView.
Such a move looks necessary from a speculative perspective — a large open interest (OI) in shorts and a drop in the greed index point to a possibility of a short squeeze.
Longer-term prospects are moderately negative — the global triangle has been broken to the downside and has yet to complete its objectives, and the current formation could develop into a downward price channel.
After the rally, this could push the price to $24,000–$26,000. This thesis should be viewed more as a guide for entering long positions rather than a target for shorts.
On the small time frame, a price channel with bounds at $31,130 and $33,830 is visible — Bitcoin may remain within these bounds for some time and show false breakouts in either direction.
It makes sense to consider breakout buys from $32,190; a strong intermediate level provides a guide for a long with modest risk and intermediate targets (the channel’s upper boundary and the previously noted zone of $36,000–$37,000).
Bitcoin could not recover much of last Thursday’s decline, but sellers were squeezed near $33,800. In the medium term, the outlook is bullish for buyers.
Longer-term prospects are less positive — the price is poised to enter a downward price channel, and only a move above $37,000 would fundamentally change the picture.
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