The trader Ilya Meshcheryakov explains the current market situation.
After an all-time high above $58,000, Bitcoin’s price began to fall sharply. This was aided by statements from well-known figures, and a technical correction tied to profit-taking after a rapid rise over the past few weeks.
The downward acceleration was driven by liquidations of long positions with open interest exceeding $4 billion in total. This pushed the price of the leading cryptocurrency below $45,000, a level from which buyers began to step in.
Looking at the cryptocurrency’s prospects, it’s worth noting that a 22% correction is not unprecedented in historical data. In terms of a technically sound development of the uptrend that formed before reaching $20,000, the current correction could extend to around $36,000 — toward Bitcoin’s main long-term trend line.
On the chart below, the previous accumulation zone (marked in blue) has already realized its potential, which had previously been indicated at around $54,000–$55,000. In such conditions the market needs to regroup before further growth. The scenario could be corrective, allowing liquidity to build up during panic selling and liquidations, or with a sideways movement.
For the next peak, a range around $61,000–$62,000 could be considered, i.e., a breach of the psychological level with a false breakout above it.
Accumulation zone with clearly defined boundaries. 4-hour chart BTC/USDT on Binance from TradingView.
From the chart’s local perspective, the key levels are $45,000–$46,000 for buyers and $51,300 for sellers. The latter is held by a limit seller, so a move above could provide impulse up to $52,500 and beyond. The first zone is more suitable for building a position, as it is quite wide — purchases there are sensible with a stop below $43,500.
15-minute chart BTC/USDT on Binance from TradingView.
In the long run, the market remains comfortable. Quick corrections point more to a long squeeze and lower the likelihood of the prolonged accumulation pattern Bitcoin displayed in January. Short-term trading ideas revolve around key levels with modest risk control.
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