Practising trader and founder of Crypto Mentors, Nikita Semov, explains the current market situation.
For longer-term scenarios, we rely on the CME futures contract — according to our research, there is less noise and volumes are somewhat cleaner. Let us consider the global picture to assess Bitcoin’s further movement.
Yesterday, the short scenario was invalidated — we closed above the $34,500 level. This indicates the market is again in a balanced phase. Trading within the range should follow the logic of a balanced structure—edge to edge. Statistically, breakouts from a flat tend to occur in the direction of the previously existing trend (in our case, downward).
It is premature to talk about $45,000 and above. The trading-range boundaries are $30,250–$42,450 on the CME (from a technical-analysis perspective).
The VA (volume accumulation — accumulation index) range: $34,750-$41,000. It is at these values and beyond that one should look for reactive activity.
Short scenario: position and long-term short positions can be sought only from $41,000 and above. One can wait for a false breakout of one of the horizontals (ideally $42,450) with increased volumes or imbalances at the extremes. Entry points — only below the breakout level.
There is space for shorts below $30,250. Given the liquidity shelf, entry there is unlikely; therefore those using pre-breakout entry strategies may try entering when a signal appears.
Long scenario: look for reactive activity below $34,750 or a move out with a test of $42,450. But one should remember the global POC at $56,500.
While the market remains in balance, it is prudent to focus on intraday trades with a short holding period. A credible upside momentum hints at movement toward the $40,000 region, which is needed to accumulate liquidity from obvious levels.