Trader outlines Bitcoin’s targets for further gains

The trader Илья Мещеряков explains the current market situation.

Bitcoin’s weekend was notably positive — the price managed to extend this year’s highs and stay above $12,800.

The fervor around altcoins continues to fade — the BTC dominance index превысил 60%. The mid-term outlook for Bitcoin remains decent.

In a calm or moderately negative environment on stock exchanges, Bitcoin faces little obstacle to continuing its rise. Into the market capital from major investors is flowing, and modest pullbacks in BTC are quickly bought up.

The chart below shows an ascending price channel with rising support levels, one of which stands at the $12,920 mark. The earlier $12,840 level was briefly breached before the rally resumed.

Ascending BTC channel with indicated support levels. Fifteen-minute BTC/USDT chart from TradingView.

A worse situation would arise if the price moves below $12,800. In the current consolidation, a large number of buyers have formed, with differing time horizons of their trades.

If the price breaks below the support level, also breaking the trend line, this could trigger a “snowball effect” — short-term buy-stop orders would fire. This, in turn, could push prices down toward lower-order levels and so on — to $12,500. In that area, sellers may come in and provoke panicked selling.

Targets for further gains could be both the strong level $13,970 (the 2019 high) and a breakout of the current max — around $13,400.

Movement above $14,000 would set levels at those seen in early 2018.

A clear illustration of the “snowball effect” in case BTC falls below the support level. Red zones mark the expected stop orders of different trader groups. Fifteen-minute BTC/USDT chart from TradingView.

The global view on the crypto market remains the same — a positive news backdrop is quickly priced in, and structural changes in investor behavior have a strong and lasting impact on markets.

Traders may want to focus on short-term trades with small, well-defined risks. Remember to book profits and place stop-loss orders. Even though the near term looks positive, even a little panic can push prices back to the levels seen in the early-to-mid year.

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