Trader outlines conditions for a new Bitcoin price rally

The market’s current situation is explained by a practising trader and founder of the Crypto Mentors project, Nikita Semov.

On 1 October the price of Bitcoin demonstrated an intense upward move (8.3% in the last 24 hours), indicating an initiating buyer reaction. Should we expect continued exponential growth?

In line with expectations, the quote exited the local balance zone (in grey) into a broader, volume-driven value area. The bounds of the major balance (in blue) are $50,400-$44,650, so the main expectation is continued balance-building within these bounds with a further expectation of a breakout higher.

There is currently an impulse that has not only brought us back into the global balance range $44,650-$50,400, but also allowed us to settle above the volume array of sellers on the left side of the chart. All of this is forming a powerful long pattern. Yet we will analyse the most likely scenarios and key levels for trading.

We have reached the seller’s volume array $47,300-$48,160, which is currently acting as resistance. The appearance of volume in the counter-trend signals a possible near-term correction.

Levels for it will be:

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• $46,300-$46,700;

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• $44,650;

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• $43,800-$44,150;

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• $43,200.

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Within the balance, the primary target will be VAH $50 400. For its attainment one must overcome and hold above the zone $47 950-$48 160. A start of a new bull run will only be possible after breaking above the $50 400 — in this case a new rally is quite likely.

We expect a correction toward the levels shown on the image, after which the upward movement resumes with a breakout of the zone $47 950-$48 160, which will open the road to $50 400.

Until prices move above this level, we expect rotations to resume. The scenario would be cancelled if the price moves below the level $43 200.

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