The current market situation is described by the practising trader and founder of the project Crypto Shaman Vadim Shovkun.
As noted in the previous update, the price has undergone a fairly deep correction. Let us consider whether new highs are in reach.
Attention should be paid to the vertical volume on March 13. The spike is comparable only with the November dump. The candle corresponding to this volume can be described as highly bullish — in a single bar the range $22 500-23 800 was broken.
The ascent above $25,200 happened quite impulsively. This level marks an important extremum of the entire summer/fall 2022 accumulation. The price did not simply re-test this extreme and slip back in a false breakout of stops a couple of days ago; it has successfully closed above it.
It is also important that on four- to eight-hour candles in recent days there has been no high vertical volume, while the price is hitting new highs. This suggests that there is currently no large seller holding back the market.
But the overall pattern of new highs over the past few months looks rather weak. The price is clearly hitting the white uptrend line and cannot break it. The probability of a breakout remains low.
A key factor limiting the medium-term rally is the breakdown of the ascending structure (Higher Low & Higher High). The market should not have fallen below $20,000, even briefly.
Up ahead there is a strong resistance in the $28,500–31 00 zone. That’s about +10% from current levels. Yet the price has surged +35% in a matter of days. From a risk/reward perspective, waiting for further gains from current levels is not advisable.
The price has already risen by around +35% from the recent Low, and there is a heavy resistance in the $28,500–31 00 zone. At the same time, the odds that another attempt to rise ends with a break of the one-and-a-half-month uptrend after such a long rally are low. It makes sense to wait for a pullback to around ~$25,200.
If the descent/correction is gradual, and the subsequent sideways movement lasts at least a week, one should expect another attempt to set new highs.