A practicing trader and founder of the project Crypto Mentors, Nikita Semov, discusses the current market situation.
Price Action and VSA
Bitcoin, in the medium term, looks quite interesting, as after the drop to the $34,170 level on CME they formed a base and broke BOS. The reaction on the wave after UT is weaker than on the wave from point 2 to SP.
A double extension was achieved, so the next breakout should be genuine. Longs remain the priority, and the entry point will be formed at JOC + BTC.
This same hypothesis is supported by bar-by-bar analysis on the daily and four-hour timeframes: bar spreads are narrowing, progress stalls on rising vertical volume. Sellers are unable to push the price lower effectively on higher timeframes, and braking structures form.
Analysis of Horizontal Volumes and Deltas
Price has entered the zone of heightened attention, namely the elevated volume from the previous trading range [1]. It is worth noting that the reaction from the level was solid, as reflected both in the angle of attack and in the accompanying volumes.
However, the price has not yet managed to anchor at key levels, which leads to the formation of a balance. This is visible both through the extremes and through the VWAP [2].
Given the overall long-dominated dynamics, a range-trading of this balance upward is quite possible. Nevertheless, the scenario will be negated by breaking the $30,500 level. In such a scenario, a reversal should be expected from the levels $29,000 and $26,810.
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