A practising trader and founder of the Crypto Mentors project Никита Семов explains the current market situation.
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Daily perspective
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On the daily chart, buyers with a weak angle of attack, with no progress and a spread in the wave, are approaching the sell zone (the pivot bar highlighted in red). The expectation on the daily time frame is a move downward.
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This is also confirmed by the presence of a more global BUI + BTI pattern with weak bullish momentum.
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There is no basis to expect a rise from current levels, since the rebound of buyers from the horizontal occurs on decreasing volume. This suggests a weakening of the $10,130-$9,984 range.
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On the 4-hour chart, a pattern within a pattern has formed—the history that only works when timeframes are linked. In the current situation, horizontal levels have tick-for-tick validation, and from $10,753 selling resumed with a primary target of $9,946. It is necessary to monitor the selling strength. I do not exclude that after reaching the indicated targets the price will move into balance.
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Analysis of horizontal volumes and delta
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In yesterday’s pump, we observed an anomalous surge in volumes under very strict filters, indicating the uniqueness of this event. Moreover, the extremes reveal buyers’ delta inefficiency and large trades. Given that there is no clear reaction to this, a drop and a return to around $10,200 can be expected in the near term.
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On the lower timeframes we observe the classic pattern of rising fixings. At the moment a balance is forming, which means that before the fall one can expect a pull toward higher volumes near $10,750.
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