A practising trader and founder of the Crypto Mentors project Crypto Mentors Nikita Semov outlines the current market situation and possible price moves for July.
It’s time to recap the month and, on that basis, attempt to forecast subsequent price moves. We will examine each of the possible price-behaviour scenarios for July, highlight the most likely one, and indicate the key levels.
What signals a decline?
Bitcoin has been in a downtrend for the past several months. The direction of the trend is determined by the alternation of highs and lows.
Thus, statistics suggest that a breakout from the sideways range is most likely in the direction of the current trend, not against it. A new low at $28,800 is the more probable scenario for movements in the coming month.
- After a false breakout of the $30,450 level, price came to test the maximum horizontal volume of the entire balance. Based on the reaction to the test, the so-called POC (Point of Control) of the entire balance at $35,850, we can say with confidence that it is positioned for selling. Put simply, there is a strong sign that a large seller is looking to drive the price lower from this range, and the $35,850 level is the boundary.
- At the test of the POC level $35,850 we could observe robust countervailing liquidity from sellers who close short-term long positions both by the footprint and by the cumulative delta, where we see a clear divergence. Delta absorption is created: a situation in which the flow of market orders is completely absorbed by limit sells and prevents the price from rising. Absorption of such volume can only be carried out by the bears, which again points to their significant activity at the moment.
- Below is a liquidity shelf: an obvious zone for which traders place their stops. Given the downbeat momentum, the market will likely use those stops to move the price significantly lower. If we compare open interest and delta data, we can confidently say that there is a huge amount of stops and liquidations there. Given that the price cannot rebound adequately from this level, a break is very likely.
In the mid-term, the downside scenario remains the primary and baseline for identifying a point of entry. The preliminary downside target is $19,200; this level represents a very strong support.
What would pave the way for a sideways market?
It is worth remembering that currently price sits within a balance with an upper bound of $41,000 and a lower bound of $30,450. Until we break out of these bounds, the trend dynamics will not resume.
Summer is one of the least active periods, so volatile moves can occur, but one should not count on them. Since we opened inside the Value Area (VA) of June, we are now in a new micro‑balance with boundaries of $31,500–$36,000 within a larger balance.
If we take the VA of the previous month in full, the upper boundary sits at $37,800. If we see a responsive reaction from support, rotations from level to level are quite plausible.
But these rotations do not affect the broader scenario of potential decline; they merely delay the downward momentum. The longer the consolidation lasts, the more intense the subsequent trend move after exiting the range.
Are there any catalysts for a rally?
There are no signs of a long setup at the moment.
For a shift into an uptrending phase, the following conditions must be met: a break of $36,000, a break of $37,800, a break of $41,000, and then an impulsive breakout with a confirmed hold. Only then can one speak of the start of a bullish phase.
Growth within the balance to $36,000–$37,800 is possible, but it would not be an uptrend; it would not mark the start of a moonshot. Such a dynamic is classic for price movement within a flat.
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