Trader outlines prospects for Bitcoin rising above $11,000

The trader Илья Мещеряков discusses the current market situation.

After a substantial fall to levels around $10 000, Bitcoin, like the rest of the market, began to recover and at the time of writing the review was trading around $10 850. The price broke above the upper boundary of the price channel at $10 500.

In previous review, the most likely scenario for BTC’s further movement was examined. This scenario is currently justified only unless there is a more pronounced breakout of the $10 000 level to trigger the stop-losses of long-position holders.

We saw only $9800, though I expected a reading below by $100-$200. This could be because most buyers placed stop orders just beyond the $9900 level, and a small drop was enough to push them out.

At the moment we are witnessing a rise aimed at the $11 100-$11 200 range, as open short positions show no pronounced consolidation and are dispersed across a broad range. Movement toward these levels would squeeze a large portion of open short interest and liquidate up to 1:10 leverage that opened during the sideways movement between $10 000 and $10 500.

Local support/resistance levels for BTC and the designated zone of the probable short-squeeze target (highlighted in red). The fifteen-minute BTC/USDT chart from TradingView.

Earlier I drew attention to the high degree of correlation between BTC and the stock markets. The statistical linkage continues to strengthen.

Comparison of BTC and NASDAQ index charts since September 14 this year. The fifteen-minute BTC/USDT and NDX charts from TradingView.

Both instruments look locally overbought in the short term, so a correction of the current move to $10 500-$10 560 is likely before resuming growth above $11 000.

The long-term outlook remains moderately negative due to persistent risk-off sentiment, which is reflected in the crypto market.

The most likely scenario for price action is a move toward $11 100-$11 200 with short-term pullbacks.

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