A practicing trader and founder of the Crypto Mentors project, Nikita Semov, explains the current market situation.
Bitcoin has been in a downturn for several weeks and shows no signs of turning higher. We analyse whether an upside for the leading cryptocurrency is likely in the near term, and, if so, at what levels.
Let us consider the daily time frame on spot and futures charts. The price is squeezed between buyer and seller volumes. The upper accumulation has been formed by the bears, and as prices approach this zone, selling pressure from bears responds.
The most likely scenario in such conditions is a continuation of the current balance with upside potential. The driver of further upside is anomalous activity in the $30,000-$37,000 zone.
On the hourly time frame, a clear clustered support at the lows is visible. This indicates buyer interest at low price levels.
The probable scenario is a move toward the upper boundary of the local accumulation ($44,200) with overcoming the density of resistance in this zone. The next target is $46,300 — the level of maximum accumulation volume from the left, and then a move toward $50,400. Growth potential only opens after a close above the resistance level.
A departure from the local long scenario would occur if the price breaks out of the local range and holds below the lower boundary and under the clustered densities of $40,650. In this case, the price would test the left-hand clustered volumes to continue mid-term growth.
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