A practicing trader and founder of the project Crypto Mentors, Nikita Semov, discusses the current market situation.
It is time to assess what happened in February, and how this will affect the current month. We will also examine a more localized view for the current week.
Although February again posted a price peak, the correction in the last week has altered the balance of power.
First, it should be understood that we are no longer in the correction phase of the uptrend. The phase has shifted to a balanced structure, the monthly volume distribution profile confirms this.
The current range boundaries are $43,000–$52,500.
Since we are in accumulation, actions should reflect that — expect rotation from the upper boundary to the lower and back.
An initial reaction has already emerged at the lower level of $43,000 in the form of a volume-driven fill, as well as spikes of delta inefficiency, after which a corresponding reaction followed.
The price is advancing toward the upper level of $51,750–$52,500. That range is simultaneously the VAH and the volume core of one of the more local auctions.
Price behavior in this area will be critically important and will determine the trajectory for March. The most likely scenario is a breakout of this zone, followed by consolidation, expansion, and a new ATH.
At this stage it cannot be stated with certainty that this scenario will play out, so there is no reason to rush decisions. Under certain conditions we could just as well bounce and head toward the lower bound of the global sideways range, or stage a false breakout.
A false breakout and a return to the range would be the most bearish scenario, since it would imply a very high likelihood of balance expanding to the opposite side, i.e., below $43,000.
Locally, the trading range is narrowing and volatility is fading, signaling a powerful impulse. Given that the global outlook shows a long to $52,500, and that we are supported from below by volume, the move is expected higher.
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