A practicing trader and founder of the Crypto Mentors project, Nikita Semov, discusses the current market situation and possible price movements in July.
Prices have approached the $35,850 level, identified as key resistance, and have moved lower in response. Because this structure is global, the continuation of the bear trend appears most likely.
Evidence of buyer weakness includes:
- an engulfing pattern on the cumulative delta;
- a price rise on shrinking vertical volumes;
- a test of the key resistance level, with a reaction to it;
- a weak rebound in buying after the daily bar on June 22.
The situation is compounded by a large number of clusters (abnormal volumes atypical for this asset) distributed in the upper portion over the past two weeks.
These factors point to a very low probability of price rising even to $41,000, the upper boundary of the range. From a volume-based perspective, this is far from the most favorable moment to buy Bitcoin for the medium term, as there are no signs of demand in the market.
On the hourly timeframe, the price has reached the interest zone of $33,600. If buyers take the initiative, a local long could be considered with a maximum target around $35,450. This is where the Low Volume Node zone and the Point of Control of the trading range lie.
This represents a substantial resistance for the price, where longs would need to be exited and potential short setups considered, with a likelihood of moving toward the lower bound of the range (around $30,000).
The highlighted zones are merely guides for locating positions and do not imply unconditional trade entries. They serve as an auxiliary tool in each trader’s strategy and point to areas where market participants’ interest is concentrated.
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