Trader outlines the long-term prospects for Bitcoin’s price

The trader Ilya Meshcheryakov discusses the current market situation.

The past two weeks since the previous market update proved neutral: a few attempts to push higher were met by bears, after which BTC traded near $10,700, where it continues to trade.

Volatility has declined in the market — since the start of September, BTC has been in a ‘triangle’. Movements within this pattern are, more or less, linked to squeezes of long or short positions.

A further narrowing of price fluctuations could occur within a week — after which the price would break out of the pattern, with the catalyst for movement likely to be stop-losses set beyond each of its boundaries.

Much in the mid-term depends on which direction the price breaks out of the triangle. There are factors suggesting a probability of breaching the $11,000 mark.

After a consolidation in the $10,600–$10,800 range, the price ran past the stop-losses of long positions marked on the chart below. At the same time, there appears to be substantial open interest on short positions not liquidated in the current move. Consequently, a move above $10,900 is plausible in the near term.

Thus, the long-term outlook for the crypto market remains negative due to decreasing demand for risk assets. Medium-term upside moves are more linked to speculative elements and local rebounds in global stock indices.

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