Market conditions are discussed by analyst Top Traders and practising trader Timur Gribenikov.
Bitcoin
On the weekly time frame, Bitcoin bounced off the lower boundary of the channel. ATZ (active trading zone) at $38,000–$33,000 has performed well, with buyers stepping up.
Over the past two weeks, Bitcoin’s delta stood at around $700 million — market buys exceeded market sells.
There has also been a return to the trend RSI.
Nearest targets for a weekly bounce are the MA50 at $48,000 and the channel median at $52,000.
On the daily time frame, they broke the downtrend line, moved above the key level of $41 000, broke through and retested the MA50. The RSI has also moved into the bullish zone.
The consolidation is taking place in the form of a horizontal correction; Bitcoin has not given deep pullbacks, which signals bullish market sentiment.
Due to a lack of accumulation, a range could form in the coming week; risk management is necessary, especially for margin traders.
If the bounce continues, an important level will be the range $46 000–$50 000. There one might lock in part of the position accumulated on the bounce.
On the weekly time frame, the up-trend structure has been broken. In such a scenario, one can expect a retest of the breached support from below before further updating minimums.
In the 2017 bull market, the RSI did not fall below 64; the current reading of 45 is historically more associated with a bear market.
Thus, the current market rise can be viewed as a bounce, and one should be prepared for further declines in altcoins.
RSI closed below the cycle boundary (value 55.8) and is now retesting it from below. If the hypothesis holds, this is the first trigger signaling the end of the large altcoin growth cycle.
If in the coming weeks the RSI does not rise above 56, that would be a negative signal.
Question: has the bullish trend ended? Here are a couple of ideas:
- The current correction differs from 2017 (this is visible in the RSI movement). It has lasted much longer and has a different structure, so the RSI has loosened, but this implies that the fifth wave may still be ahead.
- An opposing idea is that the fifth wave has already ended and the expected divergence is already on the chart. In that case one should expect only a decline. However, against this idea is that the fifth wave would be very short if it occurs.
Avalanche
AVAX on the daily time frame shows excellent momentum.
Buyers did not allow a drop below $50. After returning to the MA200 and breaking with a retest of the down-trend RSI, there was a move out of the ATZ $62–$68 and a break of the strong level at $70.
At present AVAX has retraced about 50% of the drop from December 22, is attempting to break above and hold above the MA50, and is approaching the main trend line on the chart and RSI. If it can sustain above the trend line, further upside with prospects of a new ATH may follow.
Solana
SOL on the daily time frame shows a modest bounce.
The price slipped below the key $128 level and is now in an untraded zone.
The MA500 and MA200 crossed, which is a bearish signal.
Additionally, two downtrends above, one of which is currently running parallel to the MA50 and could act as resistance for the price.
Main targets for the rebound are $128 and the ATZ $135–$145.
Terra
LUNA on the daily time frame looks interesting.
At the moment the price reached the ATZ in a narrow range of $42–$44, after which buyers reacted and the price bounced above the MA200 and held above it.
At present LUNA has corrected about 0.382 on the Fibonacci. One can cautiously trade the bounce with targets $65–$70.
Near
NEAR looks rather well on the daily time frame.
Sellers failed to hold below the trendline from July 21, and after a brief accumulation in the ATZ, the price began a correction.
On the first attempt MA50 failed to break from below; a pullback is in progress, after which another attempt should follow.
RSI broke through and retested the downtrend from October 25, but remains in a neutral zone.
Targets for the rebound are around $16.
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