Nikita Semov, a practising trader and founder of the Crypto Mentors project, explains the current market situation.
Bitcoin is currently in a rather ambiguous situation. To understand it, one must take into account a variety of factors, and wait for additional conditions to be met.
First, it is worth noting that the cryptocurrency has entered February’s most voluminous and liquid zone — $46 000-$50 000. The zone where buyers were most active and ultimately managed to print yet another [simple_tooltip content=\’historical maximum\’]ATH[/simple_tooltip] in February.
This reaction to this volume core is not fully satisfying us, so talking about longs «from current levels to a new high» is not warranted.
First, it is unsatisfactory due to Market Structure not aligning with the most common and classical reversal patterns. And, second, due to «insensitivity», which is expressed in rotations both within the core and below it.
Nevertheless, below there remain important buyer zones: micro-accumulation around $44 000-$46 500, which does not allow Bitcoin’s price to crash, and clustered activity at $42 500-$43 000.
One should also note the current reaction (point D), expressed by volumes that can presently be classified as defensive.
Taking this reaction into account, we can reasonably expect a move upward toward $49 000-$50 000. In this scenario Bitcoin would be in a balance where the odds of hitting new highs in March would be much higher than today.
If anomalous activity occurs at the levels above and the price clears $44 000 (reaches a new high), then buying the digital gold would be justified only around $38 000-$42 000.
Thus:
- Between February 26 and 27, expect a rally toward $49 000-$50 000
- A consolidation in the $44 500-$51 000 range is very likely
- If it falls below $44 000, expect a substantial downside wave
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