A practising trader and founder of the Crypto Shaman project Crypto Shaman Vadim Shovkun.
Since the previous overview, the price of Bitcoin has risen, consolidating below the sideways accumulation of $22,500–23,800. This followed an impulsive bar on March 3, effectively producing a downside breakout of the range.
When analysing the entire latest wave of declines, selling pressure has grown. First, with a break of the upper boundary, the price returned to the range on impulse. The lower boundary was breached on an even larger impulse. Between impulses there was a pullback stronger than the current one. In other words, the true correction is much weaker.
Two liquidity zones lie at the bottom. With high probability the red zones will be cleared before a relatively normal rally. Clearing the yellow zones would break the structure of the local trend.
The market’s main expectation at present is the absorption of all red liquidity cascades and a high-probability absorption of the yellow marks, i.e., a short-term move below $21,800. Until all red marks are absorbed, there is little prospect of a substantial rally.
Most logical to wait for a decline after a rebound from PoC of the entire accumulation; that is where the best entry point for a short position will be. After the red marks are cleared, observe the market’s reaction. If there is a robust price rebound and volume inflows, one could consider a scenario of Bitcoin rising. Otherwise, expect further declines.