A practising trader and founder of the Crypto Shaman project, Crypto Shaman Vadim Shovkun, explains the current market situation.
After overview dated October 25, Bitcoin moved higher from the sideways range. We analyse the current market situation.
S&P 500
The S&P 500 stock index has nearly reached all of its upside targets. A move higher could reach up to PoC for the last six months. There is no volume yet, meaning a large player is still holding their positions.
For now the price remains below PoC; the market expects a decline. Only with a daily close above the level would the situation be reassessed.
The Fear and Greed Index on the stock market is already at 61, though it was 19 not long ago. There is no longer any sign of the potential continuation of a recession in the U.S. stock market.
BTC
Bitcoin has finally broken above the upper end of the sideways accumulation range of $18,400–$20,400. There is a daily close above the upper boundary, a pullback occurred, and the price is now attempting to repeat the scenario.
If over the weekend the leading cryptocurrency holds the $20,500 level, a short-term rally could be in the cards over the next few days.
Sentiment toward Bitcoin remains bearish. A number of analysts have started talking about a revival in the market, and the Fear and Greed Index has moved to around 30-33 in recent days.
Even so, Bitcoin has risen only about 10% from its bottom. One can conclude that market participants are too fatigued by the protracted flat market and are ready to believe in a substantial rise with only a small price movement.
Выводы
The other arguments from the previous overview remain valid. Up until the US elections, a significant negative market environment is unlikely. Despite disappointing earnings reports from some top tech companies and a high consumer price index, the market continues to rise. This can be explained only by artificial price inflation in the run-up to the elections.
The rally was anticipated, and by November 8 Bitcoin could reach $22,000. But the main medium-term forecast at present is a decline.
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