In a briefing on the market, Nikita Semov, a practicing trader and founder of the project Crypto Mentors, explains the current market situation.
Bitcoin faced selling pressure to around $29,250, validating expectations of further near-term downside. The analysis turns to the higher time frame on the regulated CME futures exchange.
A break of the important level of $30,300 signals a lack of motivation among buyers to defend price levels from which impulsive pullbacks were previously seen.
On horizontal volume, the test of the maximum traded range and the positioning of large cluster volumes (marked in pink) are visible. These parameters point to a continuation of the down move in the medium term, with a potential drop to $24,100.
In the short-term picture, we have moved well below last month’s value area. A full positioning has not yet occurred, but given the lack of any convincing buying reaction, June’s volumes can be considered positioned.
Moreover, last week was positioned in sales within just two days, signaling strong seller control. Accordingly, the main resistance levels are now:
- $30 125;
- $31 250;
- $31 800;
- $32 600.
Delta and open interest (OI) metrics show that most of the holders of long positions have not yet been flushed out. On July 18, a divergence (absorption) in the cumulative delta was formed. OI confirms that this was indeed a position opening. This metric does not indicate a proper unwind during the latest decline.
This implies that beneath the $28 750 equilibrium there are numerous liquidations and stop hunts by enthusiasts who go long. The screenshot marks this horizontal line, which is not a genuine level. There will be no rebounds — expect either a breakout, or a very aggressive manipulation. The nearest real support level is $24 100.
At present, the most likely scenario is a break of $28 750 from the current levels (or a brief test of $30 125). A test of $31 250–$31 800 is also possible, after which a break of $28 750 could occur.
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