Nikita Semov, a practising trader and founder of the Crypto Mentors project, explains the current market situation.
Bitcoin moved very close to the $41 100 level, as indicated in the last review. At present, the price is expanding to the downside relative to the established flat accumulation bounded by $39 400-$40 250.
Will Bitcoin break the $41 400 level (the previous extreme), or is the price headed lower toward $31 200?
Globally, we sit at the upper boundary of a three-month accumulation, so a selling reaction is entirely expected.
To date, we have witnessed an impulse to the full height of the Value Area balance over the last two days. This provides a basis to assert that this breakout is genuine. Support on volume, along with the absence of reversal patterns in the cumulative delta, such as exhaustion or absorption, confirm this.
This means that in the near term we may expect a correction in the $39 000-$39 400 range. After that, a renewed downtrend may resume.
The initial support will be at $36 000, from which we may see a modest buying response. The main target is the lower boundary of the value area ($31 200).
The end of the short scenario would be a return to the local balance range, i.e., holding above $39 450. In that case, a new high of $41 400 could be expected.
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