Traders wager $550m on bitcoin sliding to $70,000

Crypto traders expect bitcoin to fall further in March, amassing $550m worth of put options with a $70,000 strike, according to Amberdata, DLNews reports.

Sean Dawson, head of research at the Derive platform, noted rising bearishness in an 11 March report. Almost 43% of contracts sold on the platform over 24 hours were puts, reflecting a need to hedge against downside, he said.

“The market is facing significant challenges as the macroeconomic situation deteriorates, and cryptoassets are no exception. […] The coming weeks are critical for assessing how the broader economic situation affects digital-asset prices and trading behaviour,” Dawson said.

Not everyone is pessimistic about bitcoin’s prospects. Data from derivatives exchange Deribit show traders actively building positions in call options with strikes between $100,000 and $120,000.

Even so, the put-to-call ratio remains in bears’ favour at 0.52.

Headwinds

Macroeconomic strains linked to the continuation of trade wars launched by US president Donald Trump’s administration and uncertainty over rate cuts by the Fed have weighed on markets.

Bitcoin’s decline was compounded by community disappointment with the US executive order on a crypto reserve and a crypto summit at the White House attended by Mr Trump. In the first case expectations centred on government purchases of “digital gold”; in the second, on clearer guidance for digital-asset policy.

A further drag was the multi-day outflow from spot bitcoin ETFs, which some interpreted as a bearish signal.

Against this backdrop, several experts allowed for a drop in “digital gold” towards $70,000.

Bitcoin is often positioned as a haven asset akin to gold. On 14 March the metal’s price hit a record, topping $3,000 per troy ounce.

One Bitcoin now buys 27.7 ounces of gold. At its peak in 2021, one Bitcoin bought 36.3 ounces of gold. That means that in terms of gold, which is real money, the price of Bitcoin has fallen by 24%. So Bitcoin has been in a stealth bear market for the past three and a half years.

— Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) March 14, 2025

“One BTC now buys 27.7 ounces of gold. At the 2021 peak it was 36.3 ounces. That means that, in real money terms, bitcoin’s price has fallen by 24%. Thus the cryptocurrency has been in a stealth bear market for the past three and a half years,” wrote Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital.

Positives

Nansen analyst Aurelie Barter sees a potential pullback to the $71,000–$72,000 range as an organic part of a macro correction within the current bull market.

Former BitMEX chief Arthur Hayes also called “normal” a possible 36% drawdown from the peak. He believes the asset will resume its rise once leading economies ease monetary policy—inevitable under Mr Trump’s current stance, in his view. He maintains that bitcoin remains in a bull run with a long-term target at $1m.

Experts at CryptoQuant argue it is premature to declare a bear market. Technical indicators point to “oversold” conditions and a possible rebound in the leading cryptocurrency.

Santiment noted a significant jump in transactions in Tether’s stablecoin.

“When USDT and other stablecoins see activity surge during price declines, it means traders are preparing to buy,” the firm explained.

They acknowledged that market mood is dominated by “exhaustion, hopelessness and capitulation” amid shrinking volumes. That should not be taken as a direct bearish indicator, they added, since positive momentum could swiftly reverse the picture.

CryptoQuant noted bitcoin’s historical correlation with the S&P 500. The US benchmark has repeatedly suffered sizeable drawdowns, including at the start of Mr Trump’s presidency. Yet it has consistently recovered, preserving an overall upward trend.

Bitget Research’s chief analyst Ryan Lee is convinced that macroeconomic conditions are not the only factors influencing bitcoin.

“Global institutional adoption, improving regulation and high resilience make it more robust than traditional financial instruments,” he said.

Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro strategy at Fidelity Investments, noted that the $109,000 all-time high for the leading cryptocurrency was more of an “anomaly” in terms of the “Adoption Curve” metric.

It has now returned to a “more justified” trend level, implying further growth.

Earlier, QCP Capital attributed bitcoin’s decline to Mr Trump’s indifference to recession risks.