Trump nominates ‘crypto-friendly’ Kevin Warsh to lead the Fed

Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as next Fed chair, stirring debate over bitcoin and policy.

On January 30, US President Donald Trump announced the nomination of Kevin Warsh to serve as the next chair of the Federal Reserve after Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May. 

The politician said he has known Warsh for a long time and “has no doubt” he will go down in history as “one of the greatest chairs of the Federal Reserve.” 

“Possibly even the best,” added Trump. 

The day before, prediction markets put the odds of this outcome at over 95%. Over the past 24 hours, Warsh’s chances surged by 68% on Polymarket. 

Who is Kevin Warsh? 

Kevin Warsh is an American financier and banking executive who served on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011. 

During and in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, he acted as a key liaison between the Fed and Wall Street. 

Warsh also represented the Federal Reserve at the Group of Twenty (G20) and served as the Board’s emissary to countries in Asia—both emerging and advanced economies. 

Before that he was Special Assistant to the President for Economic Policy and executive secretary of the National Economic Council at the White House. 

“Markets in general see Warsh’s potential return as a bearish signal for bitcoin. His focus on monetary discipline, high real rates and shrinking liquidity casts the cryptocurrency not as a hedge against fiat debasement, but as a speculative excess that vanishes with the end of the easy-money era,” — believes 10x Research founder Markus Thielen.

Higher real interest rates are the actual cost of borrowing adjusted for inflation. This “true” rate has the strongest impact on financial decisions. When it rises, businesses and investors typically cut exposure to risk assets, including bitcoin.

The 2008 crisis 

Warsh’s track record only heightens concerns. In the depths of the 2007–09 global financial crisis, when the world economy teetered on the brink of deflation, he continued to warn about inflation risks: 

1. In September 2008, the month Lehman Brothers collapsed, Warsh said: “I am still not prepared to abandon my concerns about inflation.”
2. Seven months later, when the Fed’s key inflation gauge was 0.8% and unemployment had reached 9%, he repeated: “I remain more concerned about upside risks to inflation than downside risks.”

Many experts argue that such a hard line, and the neglect of deflation risks, exacerbated the crisis.

“If his approach had been implemented, it would likely have led to higher unemployment, a slower recovery and greater deflation risks in the 2010s,” Thielen noted.

A potential Warsh appointment looks paradoxical: his hawkish reputation sits in direct conflict with Mr Trump’s reflationary, risk-on agenda. 

The president has repeatedly and harshly criticised Jerome Powell—often resorting to personal insults—for keeping rates high. He says this “kills” the economy. 

Mr Trump is calling for rapid and deep cuts, urging rates be lowered to about 1% from the current 3.5–3.7%.

Hence, many experts doubt that Warsh is a suitable choice for a Fed expected to adhere closely to White House policy. 

Kevin Warsh has been monetary policy hawk his entire career and most importantly, during a time when the labor markets fell out of bed. His dovishness today stems from convenience. The President risks getting duped.

— RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research (@RenMacLLC) January 30, 2026

“Kevin Warsh has been a monetary ‘hawk’ his entire career, and—critically—during a period when the labour market lay in ruins. His current ‘dovish’ rhetoric is a matter of convenience. The president risks being duped,” analysts at Renaissance Macro Research warned. 

Andreas Steno Larsen, founder of the research firm NowcastIQ, called Warsh a “convenient” candidate for Mr Trump: 

“In my view, to consider Warsh more of a ‘hawk’ compared with other candidates like Rick Rieder and Chris Waller is a misperception. Warsh is very close to the Trump family, and I think he got the nod precisely because Mr Trump wants someone in the post with whom he has enough trust to actually ‘control the agenda’. 

Warsh is indeed closely tied to Mr Trump’s circle. He is married to Jane Lauder, an heir to the Estée Lauder cosmetics empire. His father‑in‑law, billionaire Ronald Lauder, is a longtime political ally of Mr Trump. 

What is his stance on cryptocurrencies? 

Warsh takes a much more positive view of bitcoin than Powell, who largely ignored the cryptocurrency’s role in the US economy.

In a July interview with the Hoover Institution, he rejected the idea that bitcoin could undermine the Fed’s ability to manage the economy. According to Warsh, the asset can “provide market discipline”:

“Bitcoin does not worry me. I see it as an important asset that can signal to policymakers when they are acting rightly or wrongly. […] It is the newest and most sophisticated software that will enable us to do what was previously beyond our reach.”

Strategy founder Michael Saylor called the candidate for the Fed “the first Bitcoin‑friendly chairman of the Federal Reserve.” 

Soon, Kevin Warsh will be the first pro-Bitcoin Chairman of the Federal Reserve.pic.twitter.com/afEBrBFeWX

— Michael Saylor (@saylor) January 30, 2026

As arguments for his potentially positive impact on the industry, some also note that Warsh is an adviser to Bitwise and acts as a business angel for several crypto projects. 

Critics do not see “a few positive words about bitcoin” as evidence of his true attitude to digital assets. For example, a user going by George Bodine called Warsh “part of the system.” 

“If you’re under 40, I guess Bitcoin is your new gold.”

Some people are using this clip and others to paint Warsh as friendly to Bitcoin.

Warsh is not a strong proponent for Bitcoin or an outlier. He is part of the system. A Cantillionaire plugged into the money nipple.

He was… pic.twitter.com/3jcmq3BJF7

— George Bodine (@Jethroe111) January 30, 2026

“He was a member of the Fed’s Board of Governors during the global financial crisis and participated in the design and implementation of measures to rescue the economy. He is incredibly wealthy, and his family ties and personal interests ensure that this will come first for him, as will the Fed’s goals,” the user stressed. 

Some also urged the crypto community not to overrate Warsh’s remarks, arguing that he is in fact neutral toward cryptocurrencies, calling bitcoin merely “new software.” 

Despite the crypto mafia already claiming Kevin Warsh is extremely pro crypto…in reality he’s been neutral at best, interested in blockchain but referring to it as just “shiny new software”, a novelty

OTOH he’s talked against independent stablecoins, instead backing a CBDC pic.twitter.com/MNVyRkpm7N

— Rho Rider (@RhoRider) January 30, 2026

In January, current Fed chair Jerome Powell said that the US Department of Justice had threatened him with criminal prosecution over testimony given to Congress in June 2025.